Anaheim's top-ranked power play meets an Islanders team built on goaltending

The Islanders visit the Ducks at Honda Center on Saturday night, and the moneyline calls it close to even: Anaheim -115, New York -104. The central question is whether Anaheim's offense, fourth in goals per game at 3.74, can keep covering for a defense that ranks 26th at 3.68 goals allowed per game, against an Islanders team that wins differently.

New York's case rests on goal prevention. The Islanders allow 3 goals per game, rank 11, and their team save percentage of 90.9% ranks fourth. Anaheim's save percentage is 86.6%, rank 30. The Islanders' offense is ordinary at best: 3 goals per game, rank 18, with a shot share of 47.1% that ranks 27th. Their results depend heavily on goaltending holding up.

The sharpest stylistic collision is special teams. Anaheim's power play converts at 36.8%, rank 1, while the Islanders' penalty kill succeeds at 85.7%, rank 6. The reverse matchup is much less dramatic. The Islanders' power play is 16.1%, rank 26, and Anaheim's penalty kill is 74%, rank 22. Penalty volume could matter more for Anaheim's scoring than for New York's.

Recent form is mixed on both sides. The Ducks have scored 4.5 goals per game over their last 10 but allowed 4.1, and they lost 2-4 at home last time out. The Islanders scored 3 and allowed 3.6 per game over their last 10, and they come off a 5-2 road win that snapped a four-game losing streak. Anaheim's shooting percentage of 14.9% is high and its save percentage is low, so both numbers have room to move. The Islanders won the most recent meeting 3-2 on October 20, but three games is a thin series sample, and Anaheim took the one before it 5-1.

On the injury front, Mathew Barzal has been upgraded to day-to-day with a knee problem but is still on injured reserve, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau is also day-to-day. Both are centers, so the Islanders' lineup down the middle is one thing to watch.

The market has barely moved. The moneyline is essentially unchanged from the open, and the puck line is Ducks -1.5 at +204 with the Islanders +1.5 at -257. Anaheim holds 73% of bets and 97% of money on the moneyline, so heavy one-sided support has not shifted the price. The total sits at 6.5, unchanged, with the Over at -120 and the Under at -101. Anaheim has gone over in three straight home games and covered the puck line in three straight, and its over rate this season is 57.9% against 50% for New York. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.