Devils' Shot Dominance Meets Capitals' Home Streaks in Immediate Rematch

The Devils beat the Capitals 5-2 on Thursday in the first game of a two-game set, and the rematch comes at Capital One Arena a day later. The underlying numbers favor New Jersey, but the Capitals carry a home winning streak into a price that is nearly even.

New Jersey's edge is clearest in shot volume. The Devils own a 56.9% shot share, rank 2, with 32.8 shots on goal per game against 24.9 allowed. The Capitals sit at 49.6%, rank 15, at 27.1 for and 27.5 against. The Devils also score 3.65 goals per game, rank 6, and allow 2.85, rank 8, while the Capitals score 3.41, rank 9, and allow 3.41, rank 17. The Capitals have played 17 games to New Jersey's 20, so their numbers rest on a slightly smaller sample.

Special teams and finishing complicate the picture. The Devils' penalty kill is 65.1%, rank 30, a real soft spot, but the Capitals' power play converts at 19.6%, rank 21, so it is not an obvious weapon. Team save percentage is nearly identical: 88.9% for the Devils, rank 17, and 88.7% for the Capitals, rank 21. Washington's 12.6% shooting percentage is producing goals from modest shot volume.

The streaks pull in different directions. The Capitals have won 11 straight in-division games at home and have covered six straight puck lines in that same context. Yet they have also failed to cover five straight puck-line games overall, and the Devils have failed to cover five straight in-division games on the road. These runs describe what has happened and do not settle tonight. New Jersey's defense is thinner: Johnathan Kovacevic and Seamus Casey are on injured reserve, and Brett Pesce is day-to-day. The Capitals have Vincent Desharnais on injured reserve with abdominal surgery.

The moneyline is essentially a coin flip: Capitals -101, Devils -118. It opened Capitals -109, Devils -111, so the shift toward New Jersey is a small move, with the Capitals' implied win probability going from 52.2% to 50.2%. Bets are 78% on the Devils and money is 92% on them, and the price moved the same way. The puck line is fixed at Devils -1.5, priced +205, with the Capitals +1.5 at -261. The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open, with the Over at +102 and the Under at -124. The Capitals have gone over the closing total in 64.7% of games, and the Devils in 60%.

The process numbers and the Thursday result point to New Jersey, while Washington's home streaks and the near-even price keep the matchup balanced. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie; Connor Hellebuyck made 26 saves in the Devils' win on Thursday.