Surging Oilers face slumping Leafs, who won both recent meetings in Edmonton

Edmonton arrives at Scotiabank Arena with one of the best records in the league and a price to match. Yet Toronto beat the Oilers in both of the last two meetings in Edmonton. The question is whether the Maple Leafs' slide, which includes a 2-5 home loss in their last game, outweighs that head-to-head record.

The season numbers favour Edmonton clearly. The Oilers are 14-3-3 with a 77.5% standings points percentage, rank 2, and score 4.05 goals per game, rank 2. Toronto is 8-11-2 at 42.9%, rank 21, and allows 3.57 goals per game, rank 23. Over its last 10 games Toronto has allowed 4 per game. Still, Toronto won 7-2 on 2026-10-24 and 5-2 on 2026-02-04, both in Edmonton, while Edmonton won 6-3 in Toronto on 2025-12-14.

Edmonton's profile is less dominant underneath. Its shot share is 48.8%, rank 22, and its 25.5 shots on goal per game are fewer than Toronto's 28. Its results lean on finishing: a 15.7% shooting percentage against Toronto's 11.7%. Toronto's shot share is 49.2%, rank 18, so territorial play is close to even, and a team converting at that rate can cool. Special teams add a real contrast. Edmonton's power play is 33.3%, rank 3, facing a Toronto penalty kill of 85.5%, rank 7. Toronto's power play is 27.1%, rank 6, against an Edmonton penalty kill of 76.9%, rank 18.

On personnel, Toronto is thin. Colton Sissons went on injured reserve on November 12 and Kirill Marchenko has been there since October 29. Morgan Rielly is day-to-day. Edmonton's Isaac Howard is on injured reserve with a knee injury. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl carry Edmonton's highest shots lines at 3.5, and Auston Matthews leads Toronto's at 3.5.

The market agrees with the standings. Edmonton is -153 on the moneyline and Toronto +129, essentially unchanged from the -150 and +125 opener. Ticket share is 95% Edmonton and money share is 93% Edmonton, heavy one-sided support that did not move the price. The puck line is Edmonton -1.5 at +150, and the total is 6.5, where it opened, with the over at -132.

The streaks fit the same split, though they only describe what has happened. Edmonton has covered eight straight on the road and has won five straight as an away favourite. Toronto has lost seven straight as a home underdog and five straight overall. Edmonton's 13-7 record against the spread shows it has more than met a demanding price, while Toronto is 9-12.

The evidence conflicts. Record, scoring and special teams point toward Edmonton, while its modest shot share and high shooting percentage, plus Toronto's recent wins in this matchup, keep the gap from being as large as the standings suggest. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.