Montreal at home against a Colorado offense with MacKinnon and Makar in doubt

Colorado arrives in Montreal with its two biggest names in question. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both left Thursday's 4-3 overtime loss at Ottawa with lower-body injuries and are listed day-to-day. Josh Manson is also on injured reserve with an ankle issue. Montreal, 12-3-4 with a 73.7% standings points percentage (rank 4), is at home, yet the moneyline has the teams almost level: Montreal Canadiens -115, Colorado Avalanche -105.

The matchup pits a high-scoring offense against a defense in good form. Colorado scores 4.05 goals per game, rank 2, and 4 per game over its last 10. Montreal allows 3 per game on the season, rank 11, but only 2.3 per game over its last 10. Colorado's own 3.15 allowed per game (rank 12) is close to Montreal's season figure, so scoring is where the teams separate. That edge depends on who plays, because the season numbers include MacKinnon and Makar.

Montreal's profile is less dominant than its record. Its shot share is 49.8% (rank 14) against Colorado's 52.7% (rank 10), and 42.1% of Montreal's games have gone past regulation, compared with 15% for Colorado. The Canadiens' power play converts at 13.8%, rank 28, and Colorado's penalty kill succeeds at 80.3%, rank 10. Montreal does hold the better team save percentage, 89.9% (rank 8) against 89% (rank 16).

The price has barely moved. The moneyline opened at Montreal -115 and Colorado -106, a change of under one percentage point of implied win probability. Montreal takes 69% of bets and 61% of the money, a clear majority on one side that has not shifted the number. The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -100 and Under -123. The puck line is Montreal -1.5 at +208 and Colorado +1.5 at -267.

The streaks pull in different directions. Montreal has failed to cover the puck line in 9 straight games as a home favourite, yet it has covered 4 straight overall and is 9-10 against the spread this season. Colorado is 13-7 against the spread, with 4 straight road covers after a loss. Colorado has also gone over the total in 6 straight road games, and 70% of its games have gone over this season, against 63.2% for Montreal. The two meetings last season ended 7-3 for Montreal and 7-2 for Colorado. These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions.

Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie. Montreal's Sam Montembeault is on injured reserve and described as day-to-day, and Chris Kreider is also day-to-day.