Even-money Central Division game: Nashville's special teams against St. Louis's slide

This is a pick'em on the moneyline between two Central Division teams with matching scoring profiles, so the case for either side rests on recent form and special teams. St. Louis is 7-7-2 and has lost four straight on the road, most recently 4-5 at New Jersey. Nashville is 7-4-5 and has won three straight, including a 3-2 road win in its last game. The Predators also won the most recent meeting 5-2 on October 18.

Over the full season the two teams are the same on paper. Each scores 3.06 goals per game (rank 18) and allows 3.13 (rank 13). Over the last 10 games Nashville is scoring 3.3 per game against 2.8 for St. Louis, with goals allowed at 3.1 and 3.2. St. Louis has the better shot share, 48.8% (rank 23) against 46.8% for Nashville (rank 28). Nashville offsets that with a 90% team save percentage (rank 6) and an 11.7% shooting percentage.

Special teams are where the clearest gap sits. Nashville's power play converts at 29.6% (rank 5), and it meets a St. Louis penalty kill that succeeds 85.7% of the time (rank 6), a real test for both units. The other side favors Nashville: its penalty kill is at 90% (rank 3), while St. Louis's power play converts at 21.3% (rank 18). Nashville has also gone past regulation in 43.8% of its games, against 12.5% for St. Louis.

The head-to-head record backs Nashville. It has won four of the last five meetings, with scores of 7-2, 5-2 and 6-5 at home and 5-2 in St. Louis. The Blues' only win in that stretch was 3-2 at home on December 28. Nashville is 10-6 against the spread and has covered the puck line three straight times, while St. Louis is 8-8. On totals, St. Louis has gone over five straight on the road after a loss, and 56.3% of its games have gone over this season, against 53.3% for Nashville. Those are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions.

The market reads the game as even. The moneyline is Nashville -110 and St. Louis -110, essentially unchanged from -109 and -111 at the open. The total is 5.5, where it opened, with Over -129 and Under +106. On the standard puck line, St. Louis -1.5 is priced at +224 and Nashville +1.5 at -285.

On injuries, Jonathan Marchessault is day-to-day for Nashville. St. Louis has Dillon Dube (neck), Torey Krug (ankle) and Logan Mailloux (hand) on injured reserve. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.

Overall, Nashville has the form, the special-teams edge and the recent meetings, while St. Louis has the better territorial numbers. A level price reflects that balance.