Memphis Road Streak Meets Pelicans Slide, But Both Memphis Centers Are Out

Memphis is a 3.5-point road favourite in an NBA Cup group stage game, arriving with five straight road wins and five straight road covers. New Orleans has lost four in a row. The question is whether the gap in season quality outweighs two things: Memphis is missing centers Quinten Post and Zach Edey, and the Pelicans won the last meeting 135-134 at Memphis on 2026-11-03.

The season numbers favour Memphis clearly. The Grizzlies have a net rating of 5.4 points per 100 possessions, rank 10, against -7.1, rank 25, for the Pelicans. The gap is widest on defense. New Orleans allows 124.3 points per game, rank 26, with a defensive rating of 118.9, rank 27, and opponents shoot 57.1% effective field-goal percentage against it. Memphis shoots 55.1% by that measure, rank 6. Both samples are small, with 11 games for Memphis and 12 for New Orleans.

The Pelicans have some counterpoints. They score 116.9 points per game, rank 8, and play at the fourth-fastest pace, 104.6 possessions per game. They also get to the line more, with a free-throw rate of .367 against Memphis at .255. They have won the last three meetings in the series, including that one-point game, though Memphis took the two before those. A fast game is plausible, and New Orleans scores enough in one to stay close.

The injury picture cuts both ways. Post is out with a concussion and Edey is out for left ankle injury management, which removes Memphis's centers on a night when rebounding and interior defense matter. Scotty Pippen Jr. is also out. For New Orleans, Trendon Watford and Yves Missi are out, and Trey Murphy III, Bennedict Mathurin and Bryce McGowens are day-to-day, with reports describing each as doubtful. The Pelicans' recent form is poor: they lost 111-145 at home to Brooklyn in their last game, and Zion Williamson called that kind of blowout loss unacceptable. Memphis lost its last game 118-123 at home to Denver.

The market has moved only slightly. Memphis opened -4.5 and is now -3.5, a small move toward New Orleans, with the moneyline at Memphis -165 and Pelicans +128. Memphis holds 84% of bets and 94% of money on the moneyline, so the price has eased against the heavy majority, though by too little to carry much weight. Memphis is 7-4 against the spread this season, and New Orleans has failed to cover four straight.

The total is 234.5, up a point from the open, again a small move. New Orleans games have gone over the closing total 66.7% of the time, against 45.5% for Memphis, which has gone under in three straight on the road. Those totals trends point in different directions.

Most of the evidence favours Memphis on quality and recent form. The missing centers, the narrow loss last time out and the pace New Orleans can impose keep the picture from being clean.