Winless-in-effect Bulls host Hawks: does Chicago's defense outweigh a 6.5-point price?

Chicago enters at 1-9 with eight straight losses overall, hosting an Atlanta team that is 7-5 in an NBA Cup group-stage game. The Hawks are 6.5-point favourites and the moneyline is Atlanta -284, Chicago +222. The question is whether Chicago's defensive trouble is bigger than that price, or whether a middling Atlanta side is being asked to cover a large number. Chicago did win all three recent meetings, though those came last season.

The season numbers separate the teams most on defense. Chicago allows 128.8 points per game, rank 29, with a defensive rating of 122.2, rank 30, and opponents are shooting 39.4% from three against it. Its net rating of -14.3 also ranks 30th. Atlanta is far less extreme: net rating rank 16, defensive rating 112 at rank 15, though it allows 116.2 points per game, rank 22. Its real strength is scoring, 118.3 per game at rank 5. Samples are small, 12 games for Atlanta and 10 for Chicago.

Pace points toward a fast game. Chicago is first in the league at 105.3 possessions per game and Atlanta is third at 104.6. The total is 245.5, up one point from 244.5, a small move toward the Over, with 61% of bets and 55% of money on the Over. Atlanta's games have gone over the closing total 58.3% of the time this season, Chicago's 50%.

The results-based evidence is less one-sided. Atlanta is 4-8 against the spread, while Chicago is 5-5 and has covered four straight after a loss at home. Those three Bulls wins over the Hawks were close: 126-123, 152-150 and 128-123. Atlanta comes off a 114-124 home loss after four days of rest. Chicago played two days ago, losing 119-124 at home to San Antonio after the Spurs overcame a 22-point deficit.

Absences matter more for Chicago. Norman Powell, the Bulls' top expected scorer, is questionable with a shoulder issue, and Dailyn Swain is questionable with a back problem. Tobe Awaka is out, and rookie Caleb Wilson is out after surgery on a fractured right hand. Atlanta has Asa Newell and Keshon Gilbert out, with Kingston Flemings questionable, so its thinner spots are on the depth side rather than among its top scorers.

The market has not moved on the side. The spread is where it opened at Atlanta -6.5, priced Atlanta -120 and Chicago -104, with 73% of bets and 62% of money on the Hawks. The moneyline shifted a small amount toward Atlanta, with 91% of bets and 88% of money on the Hawks. Defensive rankings and public support line up behind Atlanta. The spread record, Chicago's cover run after losses at home and the size of the price keep this from being a one-way read.