Warriors' eight-game streak meets Houston's defense as a 5.5-point home price holds

Two 8-3 teams meet in Houston, with Golden State riding eight straight wins and Houston a 5.5-point home favourite. The season numbers describe two similar teams, so the question is whether home court and the Warriors' injuries justify that price.

The matchup is Golden State's offense against Houston's defense. The Warriors score 120.4 points per game, rank 2, with an offensive rating of 119.3, also rank 2. They shoot 40.3% from three on a 47.3% three-point attempt rate. Houston allows 106.4 points per game, rank 5, with a defensive rating of 107, rank 8. Houston also plays slowly, at a pace of 99 possessions per game, rank 26, against Golden State's 101.5, rank 18. A slower game would suit the home side.

Overall quality is close. Golden State's net rating is 10.5 points per 100 possessions, rank 3, and Houston's is 10.1, rank 5. Both are 8-3 straight up and 8-3 against the spread, so neither has been mispriced in the other's favour. Eleven games is a small sample. The Warriors' last win was 138-87 over a short-handed Pelicans team, which says little about a Houston defense that is well organised. Houston's last outing was a 110-100 home win over a Denver team that had travel delays.

Injuries cut both ways. Golden State is without guards Gary Payton II (knee) and Brandon Williams (hamstring, at least a week). Will Richard is listed out, though one report calls him questionable. Jimmy Butler III is recovering from a torn right ACL, with a possible return in January or February, and Kristaps Porzingis has stepped away from basketball. Houston is missing centers Clint Capela and Steven Adams. Adams could return as soon as Sunday, so he is not expected tonight.

The market is notable for what it has not done. The spread opened at Houston -5.5 and is unchanged, at -111 on both sides. Golden State has 62% of bets and 84% of the money, yet the price has not moved. The moneyline shows a similar split, with Houston at -215 and Golden State at +164. Houston has 59% of tickets, but Golden State has 95% of the money, and the line has shifted only slightly toward Houston. On the total of 223.5, up a point from 222.5, a small move, 85% of bets are on the Over while 58% of the money is on the Under.

The recent series is tight. Houston won 117-116 in April, Golden State won 115-113 in March, and Houston won 104-100 last November. The evidence is balanced: Golden State has the better offense and the streak, and Houston has the stronger defense, the slower pace and home court. The market price holds Houston as the favourite despite the heavy support for the Warriors.