Pelicans' home-favorite run meets Nets' road slide, after two blowout losses

Two teams coming off lopsided road losses meet in New Orleans. Brooklyn lost 93-130 in its last game, and the Pelicans lost 87-138, the second game of a stretch in which they play three in four nights. New Orleans is a 5.5-point favorite. The central question is whether a home side with a weak defense can lean on its scoring and pace against an offense that has struggled to put up points.

The offensive gap is the clearest separator. New Orleans scores 117.5 points per game, rank 8, and plays at 105 possessions per game, rank 3. Brooklyn scores 106.7 points per game, rank 28, with an offensive rating of 104.7, also rank 28. Defense gives the Nets some relief: they allow 115.7 points per game, rank 19, while the Pelicans allow 122.4, rank 27. Net rating favors New Orleans at -4.8, rank 20, against Brooklyn's -8.3, rank 24. Neither number is good, and with 11 and 10 games played, these are small samples.

The streaks pull in different directions. New Orleans has won and covered six straight as a home favorite, yet it has lost three straight overall. Brooklyn has lost three straight on the road and sits at 2-8, though it is 6-4 against the spread. Those runs describe what has happened and do not predict tonight. Still, the Nets' record has not been matched by their price.

On the injury front, Trendon Watford is out for New Orleans. Trey Murphy III is probable with a knee issue. For Brooklyn, Nolan Traore is questionable with a calf problem. Egor Demin is officially listed as out, although a report calls him probable, so his status is unsettled.

The market has barely moved on the side. The spread opened at Pelicans -4.5 and now sits at -5.5, a small move toward the home team. The moneyline is essentially unchanged at Pelicans -189 and Nets +145. Support for New Orleans is lopsided, with 84% of bets and 83% of money on the Pelicans. Heavy one-sided backing has not pushed the price much. The total is 229.5, down a point from 230.5, also a small move. Bets are split evenly between Over and Under, but 67% of the money is on the Under. Both teams have gone under in their last three games, although the Pelicans' games have gone over the total 63.6% of the time this season, against 50% for Brooklyn.

Last season's meetings were split. Brooklyn won 119-101 at home on December 6, and New Orleans won 116-113 at home on January 15.

Overall, the Pelicans' scoring edge and home form point one way, while their defensive rank and three straight losses point the other. Brooklyn's offense is the weaker unit, but its defense is the better of the two, so the evidence is mixed rather than decisive.