Banged-up Raptors host Celtics: does Toronto's health or Boston's form decide it?

Toronto hosts Boston with its rotation stretched thin. Kawhi Leonard is out and will miss at least one more week with knee swelling. Scottie Barnes is out with a groin injury, and Nate Bittle is out with a foot injury. Three more Raptors are questionable, so availability is the central question here, more than any matchup history.

The questionable group matters. Immanuel Quickley (hamstring), Collin Murray-Boyles (illness) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (illness) are all day-to-day. Toronto was already short-handed on Monday, when it lost 118-102 to Memphis. Before that game the Raptors were 5-4 and sixth in the East. Boston has no injuries reported.

Boston arrives at 8-2 and second in the East, having entered Tuesday's game at Philadelphia on a three-game winning streak. Its most recent result in that run was a 117-97 win over Milwaukee, in which Jayson Tatum added 21 points. The schedule cuts the other way. Boston played Tuesday night, while Toronto last played Monday, so the Celtics are on a second game in two nights and the Raptors have an extra day of rest.

Head-to-head, Boston won all four meetings last season: 112-96 and 121-113 in Toronto in December, then 125-117 in January and 115-101 in April, both played in Boston. That points firmly toward Boston, but it is weak evidence for tonight. Jaylen Brown is now with Philadelphia according to recent news, so Boston's group is not the one that played those games. Toronto's current absences also make this a different opponent.

The total offers a split picture. Boston has gone under in six straight games overall and in four straight on the road. Those runs describe what has happened and do not predict anything. Last season's meetings were higher-scoring, with Boston putting up 112, 121, 125 and 115. A Toronto side missing Leonard and Barnes could be limited on offense, which fits the under streak. The back-to-back could affect Boston's pace, though the evidence on that is thin.

Overall, health and recent form point toward Boston, and last season's results back that up. The rest-and-travel situation is the main offset, and Toronto's three questionable players could change the picture. If Quickley, Murray-Boyles and Jackson-Davis all play, Toronto is closer to full strength than its injury list suggests. If they sit, the gap in available talent grows. Nothing here establishes a clear edge on the total.