By Jake Turner • Updated August 21, 2025 at 12:01 PM UTC

ESPN ranks Derrick Henry at #19, but Vegas betting markets tell a different story. Our market-implied projections place Derrick Henry at #12 overall.

Market vs. Media Rankings

Our sportsbook-projected fantasy tiers provide superior draft guidance.

Our analysis places Derrick Henry at #12 overall and #6 at RB, compared to ESPN's ranking of #19.

The market prices Derrick Henry higher than ESPN (#12 vs #19), suggesting undervalued consensus opportunity.

Championship Weeks Assessment

Playoff SOS score: 66 (Solid tier)

Championship-week scheduling makes Derrick Henry advantageous for playoff builds during weeks 15-17.

Fantasy Production Outlook

Our betting market insights position Derrick Henry with a projected fantasy score of 257.59 points. This projection accounts for market efficiency patterns that traditional methods miss.

Market Intelligence

The betting market's precision in pricing player outcomes makes our sportsbook-implied outlook significantly more reliable than conventional analysis.

Health & Availability Profile

Projected games missed: 0.7

Market-implied values incorporate injury-adjusted distributions for realistic availability expectations.

Market-Based Draft Strategy

Draft positioning for Derrick Henry: Picks 1-12 in 12-team formats.

Build considerations: Pair with high-target WR1 to balance TD variance.

Market Comparables (±10 ranks)

• Christian McCaffrey (#13) — Playoff SOS -13.0, Proj points +1.9
• Ashton Jeanty (#10) — Playoff SOS -13.0, Proj points -0.4
• De'Von Achane (#6) — Playoff SOS -2.0, Proj points -12.6

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Derrick Henry worth a first-round pick in 2025?

Based on Vegas-derived projections, Derrick Henry provides elite value at #12 overall with 257.59 projected points.

What makes market projections more accurate?

Sportsbook lines react to injuries, depth charts, and news in real-time, creating actionable edges that static preseason projections miss.

What's the market delta vs Derrick Henry's ADP?

Favorable playoff matchups with 66 SOS score.

How We Build These Projections

Our market-based approach translates sportsbook player props into fantasy distributions, then ranks by median and ceiling outcomes. Rankings update continuously as lines move.

Data Sources: Aggregated lines from major U.S. sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, plus five-year historical databases.

About the Author

Jake Turner has been analyzing fantasy football using quantitative methods for over 8 years. His market-based approach has consistently outperformed consensus rankings, with a documented 73% accuracy rate in identifying top-12 weekly performers. Jake combines sports betting market efficiency with fantasy football strategy, translating Vegas insights into actionable draft advice.

Lines last updated: August 21, 2025 at 12:01 PM UTC | Refresh frequency: Daily during season