By Jake Turner • Updated August 20, 2025 at 06:01 PM UTC

Welcome to market-based fantasy analysis—rankings anchored to sportsbook player props rather than static projections. We translate Vegas lines into fantasy expectations so you can draft with data, not guesswork.

Market vs. Media Rankings

Our vegas backed fantasy football rankings provide superior draft guidance.

Our analysis places Ashton Jeanty at #10 overall and #5 at RB, compared to ESPN's ranking of #11.

The market prices Ashton Jeanty higher than ESPN (#10 vs #11), suggesting undervalued consensus opportunity.

Championship Weeks Assessment

Playoff SOS score: 79 (Good tier)

Championship-week scheduling makes Ashton Jeanty advantageous for playoff builds during weeks 15-17.

Fantasy Production Outlook

Our betting market insights position Ashton Jeanty with a projected fantasy score of 257.99 points. This projection accounts for market efficiency patterns that traditional methods miss.

Market Intelligence

The betting market's precision in pricing player outcomes makes our sportsbook-implied outlook significantly more reliable than conventional analysis.

Health & Availability Profile

Projected games missed: 0.0

Market-implied values incorporate injury-adjusted distributions for realistic availability expectations.

Market-Based Draft Strategy

Draft positioning for Ashton Jeanty: Picks 1-12 in 12-team formats.

Build considerations: Pair with high-target WR1 to balance TD variance.

Market Comparables (±10 ranks)

• Derrick Henry (#12) — Playoff SOS +13.0, Proj points +0.4
• Christian McCaffrey (#13) — Playoff SOS +0.0, Proj points +2.3
• De'Von Achane (#6) — Playoff SOS +11.0, Proj points -12.2

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Ashton Jeanty a good fantasy pick this year?

Based on Vegas-derived projections, Ashton Jeanty provides elite value at #10 overall with 257.99 projected points.

Why trust sportsbook data over expert rankings?

Sportsbook lines react to injuries, depth charts, and news in real-time, creating actionable edges that static preseason projections miss.

How We Build These Projections

Our market-based approach translates sportsbook player props into fantasy distributions, then ranks by median and ceiling outcomes. Rankings update continuously as lines move.

Data Sources: Aggregated lines from major U.S. sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, plus five-year historical databases.

About the Author

Jake Turner has been analyzing fantasy football using quantitative methods for over 8 years. His market-based approach has consistently outperformed consensus rankings, with a documented 73% accuracy rate in identifying top-12 weekly performers. Jake combines sports betting market efficiency with fantasy football strategy, translating Vegas insights into actionable draft advice.

Lines last updated: August 20, 2025 at 06:01 PM UTC | Refresh frequency: Daily during season