Winless-in-seven Canucks face Vegas: is the heavy price already baked in?

Vancouver arrives at T-Mobile Arena at 3-17-1 and on a seven-game losing streak, including a 1-5 home loss in its last outing. Vegas is 13-5-3 and has beaten the Canucks in all four recent meetings, most recently 3-2 in Vancouver on October 5. The central questions are whether a price this heavy leaves any room, and whether a total of 6.5 matches how both teams have been scoring lately.

The season-long numbers point firmly one way. Vancouver allows 4.52 goals per game (rank 28), owns the league's lowest shot share at 42% (rank 32), and has a team save percentage of 85.7% (rank 30). Vegas allows 2.71 goals per game (rank 4), holds a 53.3% shot share (rank 6) and stops 90.1% of shots (rank 6). The special teams matchup adds to it: Vancouver's penalty kill succeeds 62.7% of the time (rank 31), and Vegas converts 27.4% of its power plays (rank 5).

There are a few caveats. Vegas has cooled offensively, scoring 2.7 goals per game over its last 10 against 3.38 for the season, and it lost 2-3 to Nashville in its previous game. Defenseman Noah Hanifin is out, which matters against any opponent. Vancouver's shot volume is low at 22 per game, though, so that absence faces a team that does not generate much. Vancouver is also without goaltender Thatcher Demko, who is on injured reserve, and defenseman Guillaume Brisebois joined him there on November 13. Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl each carry the top shots line on Vegas at 2.5, matched by Jake DeBrusk at 2.5 for Vancouver, with Brock Boeser at 1.5.

The market agrees with the stats. Vegas is -431 on the moneyline and Vancouver +329, after opening at -397 and +305. That is a small move toward Vegas, taking implied win probability from 79.9% to 81.2%. Bets are 98% on Vegas and money is 97% on Vegas, so the public and the price are moving together, with no split between ticket count and dollars. On the puck line, Vegas -1.5 is -157 and Vancouver +1.5 is +130. The cover record is a reminder that the favorite's role is not automatic: Vegas is 9-12 against the spread this season, though Vancouver is 8-13 and has failed to cover four straight.

The total of 6.5 is unchanged from the open, with the Over at -105 and the Under at -115. The evidence conflicts. Vancouver's 4.52 goals allowed per game supports scoring, and Vegas games have gone over the closing total 57.1% of the time. Against that, Vancouver has scored only 2.4 goals per game over its last 10, has gone under three straight, and has gone over just 42.9% of the time. Vegas has allowed 2.7 per game over its last 10, and both clubs have recent scoring numbers well below 6.5 for a combined game.

Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie, and with Vancouver's save percentage ranked 30th, the netminder matchup could affect both the side and the total.