Anaheim's Top-Ranked Power Play Meets Calgary's Weak Offense on Back-to-Back

Anaheim is a home favorite at -156 on the moneyline, with Calgary at +130, in the fourth meeting between these teams this season. The Ducks won 4-2 on October 11 and 5-3 on November 7, and Calgary took the October 14 game 4-2. Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, so rest does not separate them. Calgary lost 1-3 at home last time out, and Anaheim lost 2-4 at home.

The central contrast is Anaheim's offense against Calgary's. The Ducks score 3.74 goals per game (rank 4) and 4.5 per game over their last 10. Calgary scores 2.47 per game (rank 28), improving to 2.8 over its last 10. At the other end, neither team defends well. Anaheim allows 3.68 per game (rank 25) and Calgary allows 3.47 (rank 18), so Calgary's weakness is scoring while Anaheim's is prevention.

Special teams could be the swing factor, and they point in both directions. Anaheim's power play converts at 36.8% (rank 1), facing a Calgary penalty kill at 81.4% (rank 9). Calgary's power play is also strong at 29.5% (rank 4), while Anaheim's penalty kill is 74% (rank 21). Penalties therefore carry more weight than usual.

Anaheim's profile carries variance. It shoots 14.9% while posting a team save percentage of 86.6% (rank 29), with only 25.1 shots per game. Its shot share of 48.3% (rank 25) is nearly identical to Calgary's 48.4% (rank 24), so neither team is dominating territory. Each team has played only 19 games, so these rates can still shift.

On the injury front, Jonathan Huberdeau will not travel with Calgary on its three-game road trip, and Connor Zary is out after knee surgery. Anaheim has Ryan Poehling and A.J. Greer on injured reserve. A report indicated Ian Moore might be an option to play by the end of the week.

The market has not moved. The moneyline is essentially unchanged from the open, with 96% of bets and 97% of money on Anaheim, so the heavy support has not changed the price. The puck line is Anaheim -1.5 at +147, and the total is 6.5 with the over at -128, also where it opened. Anaheim is 11-8 against the spread and has seen 57.9% of its games go over the total, against 47.4% for Calgary. Anaheim has covered three straight at home and gone over three straight at home, while Calgary has gone under in three straight on the road. Those runs describe what has happened and are not predictions.

The evidence agrees that Anaheim's scoring and power play give it the more dangerous attack. It conflicts on goals allowed and goaltending, where Anaheim ranks poorly, and on a Calgary power play that is also elite.