Bedard-Less Blackhawks Host a Blues Team That Can't Score — Preseason Stats, Real Concerns

Let's be upfront about the context first: this is a preseason game. The statistical data referenced here reflects last season's full-year numbers, not what either team is showing through training camp or exhibition play. There are no odds, no public betting percentages, no line movement, and no systems firing. This is a pure statistical matchup discussion, and the honest read is that the edge-finding toolkit is empty here.

That said, the underlying numbers are worth understanding heading into the 2025-26 season.

Chicago's metrics from last season are historically bad. They ranked dead last in xGoals% at 42% and dead last in Fenwick% at 45%, meaning opponents consistently controlled play and generated the better chances. Their xGoals For/Game of 2.67 was also last in the league, and they allowed 3.38 expected goals against per game, ranked 29th. The Blackhawks were not just a bad team — they were one of the worst possession and shot-quality teams the league has seen in recent memory.

Now they're heading into the early part of the regular season without Connor Bedard. The 19-year-old captain underwent shoulder surgery in July and is expected to miss time until around November. Last season he logged 30 goals and 45 assists across 69 games averaging nearly 21 minutes of ice time. Losing that production and usage from an already thin offensive group is a meaningful blow. Chicago's penalty kill ranked 5th at 87%, which is a legitimate strength, but their power play at 12.8% was 28th — and that's unlikely to improve without Bedard quarterbacking it.

St. Louis presents a different but not dramatically better profile. Their xGoals For/Game of 2.71 ranked 31st — nearly as limited offensively as Chicago — and their HD Chances For of 2.8 per game was dead last at 32nd. The Blues are genuinely struggling to generate high-danger looks. Where they separate from Chicago is defensively: their xGoals Against of 3.01 ranked 10th, and their HD Chances Against of 3.3 ranked 12th. That's a team that defends reasonably well at even strength but can't manufacture enough offense to capitalize on it.

The Tucker injury on the blue line is worth noting but not a game-changer by itself for a preseason context.

If there's any statistical narrative here, it's two offensively limited teams meeting in a game that could easily stay low-scoring — but without odds or a total to bet into, that observation has nowhere to land.

Bottom line: this is a preseason game with no betting infrastructure around it. The long-term concern for Chicago is real — they were one of the league's worst teams last year and are losing their most important player to open the season. The Blues are defensively competent but offensively toothless. File this as useful context for when regular-season markets open, not a game to build a bet around.