Ottawa's #1 Defense Meets Montreal's League-Worst HD Danger Allowed — Senators Have the Edge

Let's be upfront about what this game is: a preseason split-squad matchup on September 26, meaning neither team is dressing a full roster, key regulars are being managed, and the stats below are from last regular season — not from tonight's specific lineups. Treat this as context, not a lock.

That said, the structural gap between these two teams is real and worth understanding.

Ottawa's 5-on-5 defensive profile last season was elite. They ranked #1 in both xGoals Against per game (2.70) and high-danger chances against per game (2.7). Their possession numbers backed it up: #2 in xGoals%, #3 in Corsi%, #3 in Fenwick%. Ottawa wasn't a team that just got lucky defensively — they were genuinely suppressing quality chances at the highest level in the league.

Montreal, meanwhile, had one of the most structurally compromised defenses in the NHL. Their high-danger chances against per game ranked #30 — dead last — at 3.8 per game. Their xGoals Against per game came in at 3.33, which ranks #26. Despite posting a respectable 3.4 Goals For per game (#7), the underlying numbers suggest Montreal's offense was outpacing their defensive structure, and that's a fragile foundation.

The matchup dynamic is straightforward: Ottawa generates danger at the net-front at a #7 rate (3.6 HD chances for per game) and faces a Montreal team that was historically porous in that same area. Ottawa's power play at 18.5% (#6) also has an edge over Montreal's penalty kill at 84.1% (#18) — that's a meaningful special teams delta if penalties flow in Ottawa's favor.

On the flip side, Montreal did score 3.4 goals per game (#7), and their penalty kill at 85.8% (#8) gives them some protection against Ottawa's man advantage. Ivan Demidov is listed out for Montreal, which matters for their upside, though in a preseason context roster construction is already unpredictable.

Ottawa's injury picture is messier. Artem Zub — a legitimate top-four defenseman who logged 81 games last season — is out. Shane Pinto at center is out. Warren Foegele is questionable. Those are meaningful pieces of Ottawa's regular-season identity, and in a split-squad game, the lineup they actually dress could look very different from the team those stats represent.

Here's the honest read: the statistical edge points to Ottawa. Their defensive structure is the best in the league at limiting high-danger chances, and Montreal's biggest weakness is generating exactly those chances against them. But this is a preseason split-squad game — coaching experimentation, prospect evaluation, and resting regulars make last season's stats a rough proxy at best.

If you're betting this game, you're betting on the structural advantage holding through a lineup that probably doesn't represent either team's best. That's a thin edge. Worth noting, not worth over-investing in.