Devils' Shot Edge Meets a Thin Winnipeg Defense as Total Drops

New Jersey arrives in Winnipeg as the stronger team on paper, 13-5-0 with five straight wins, against a Jets side at 7-8-3. The headline is Connor Hellebuyck's first trip back to Winnipeg since his trade demand was granted, but the Devils have announced he will not face the Jets. The factors most likely to decide the night are whether New Jersey's shot-volume edge survives a short turnaround and how a thinned Winnipeg defense handles it.

The season numbers favour the Devils clearly. They rank fifth in standings points percentage at 72.2% and carry a 57.7% shot share, rank 2. They average 33.7 shots on goal and allow 24.7. Winnipeg averages 27.5 shots and allows 28.4, with a shot share of 49.2%, rank 17. Both teams have played 18 games, enough to show direction but not to settle it.

Recent form widens the gap. New Jersey has scored 4.1 goals per game and allowed 2.4 over its last 10, while Winnipeg has scored 2.6 and allowed 3.9. For the season, the Devils score 3.67 per game, rank 7, and Winnipeg allows 3.5, rank 19. Josh Morrissey and Elias Salomonsson are both on injured reserve, which leaves the Jets short on the back end against a team that generates this much volume.

Winnipeg's case is smaller but real. New Jersey is playing the third game in four nights, though it won its last one 4-0 on the road. New Jersey's penalty kill is 67.6%, rank 25, and Winnipeg's power play is 21.8%, rank 14. Mark Scheifele scored on a power play with 1.6 seconds left to beat Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Jets also won both January meetings 4-3, one in each building. Against the spread, the Devils are 7-11 and the Jets 10-8.

The moneyline has the Devils at -146 and the Jets at +123, essentially unchanged from the open. Support is lopsided, with 91% of bets and 78% of money on New Jersey, yet the price did not budge. The puck line is fixed at Devils -1.5, with New Jersey at +168 and Winnipeg at -209.

The total is the more interesting market. It has dropped from 6.5 to 6, a notable move toward the Under, even though 92% of bets and 95% of money are on the Over, which makes it reverse line movement. Over is -116 and Under -103. The Over has streaks behind it: Winnipeg has gone over six straight, New Jersey four straight on the road, and the Devils have gone over in 61.1% of games this season. Against that, New Jersey allows 2.83 goals per game, rank 6, and Winnipeg scores 2.72, rank 23. The Devils have not confirmed a starting goalie.