Minnesota's Elite Defense Meets Montreal's Offense in a Near Coin-Flip

Two teams with nearly identical records meet in Montreal, and each case comes from opposite ends of the ice. Minnesota is 12-3-4 with a standings points percentage of 73.7%, rank 3. Montreal is 11-3-3 at 73.5%, rank 4. Minnesota's strength is run prevention, Montreal's is scoring, and the price treats the game as close to even, with Minnesota at -122 and Montreal at +102.

Minnesota allows 2.26 goals per game, rank 1, and its team save percentage of 91.1% is rank 2. Montreal scores 3.59 goals per game, rank 8, and 3.8 per game over its last 10. Minnesota's shot share of 53.4% is rank 6, against Montreal's 49.6%, rank 16. Montreal allows 3.12 goals per game, rank 12, so its defensive numbers are the softer side of this matchup.

Special teams also separate them. Minnesota's power play converts at 26.5%, rank 7, while Montreal's sits at 15.4%, rank 26. The penalty kills are nearly level at 78.3% for both teams. If the game is penalty-heavy, the power-play gap points toward Minnesota.

The moneyline is essentially unchanged from its open of Montreal +101 and Minnesota -121. Tickets are 77% on Minnesota and money is 87%, yet the price has not moved. The puck line is Minnesota -1.5, with Minnesota at +196. The total is 6.5 and has not moved either. Bets are 85% on the Over and money is 93%, but the Under carries the heavier price at -126 against +103 on the Over.

The streaks pull in different directions. Montreal has gone over the total in 6 straight at home, and 64.7% of its games this season have gone over. Minnesota has gone under in 5 straight on the road, and 36.8% of its games have gone over. Minnesota has won 5 straight on the road and covered the puck line in 5 straight on the road, and is 13-6 against the spread. Montreal has failed to cover in 6 straight at home and is 7-10 against the spread. These runs describe what has happened, not what comes next. The teams split their two meetings in January and February, each winning 4-3 at home.

Absences matter on both blue lines. Minnesota's defensemen Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon are on injured reserve, though Spurgeon is expected to travel with the team. Montreal is without defenseman Mike Matheson, and Jake Evans and Josh Anderson are day-to-day. Both teams have a goaltender on injured reserve, Filip Gustavsson for Minnesota and Sam Montembeault for Montreal, and neither has confirmed a starter.