Montreal's Shot Edge Against St. Louis's Power Play, With Nick Suzuki Out

Montreal arrives in St. Louis on four straight wins with the better early-season profile, yet the price is close to a coin flip: Montreal Canadiens -114, St. Louis Blues -104 on the moneyline. The main questions are whether Montreal's shot-share edge outweighs the absence of Nick Suzuki, who is listed Out with an upper-body issue, and whether St. Louis's power play can exploit one of the league's weaker units.

Montreal is 6-3-2 with a points percentage of 63.6%, rank 8. St. Louis is 5-5-1 at 50%, rank 16. Montreal's shot share is 52.3%, rank 10, against 48.4%, rank 24 for the Blues. Scoring and goals allowed are nearly identical: Montreal is at 3.27 scored and 3.27 allowed per game, St. Louis at 3.18 and 3.18. Both teams have played only 11 games, so these ranks are soft evidence.

Special teams give the clearest separation. St. Louis converts 24.1% of its power plays, rank 10, while Montreal converts 12.5%, rank 26. The penalty kills are close, at 82.6%, rank 10 for Montreal and 82.8%, rank 9 for St. Louis. The two meetings on record favour St. Louis, which won 4-3 in Montreal on 2025-12-08 and 2-0 at home on 2026-01-03. Both predate this season, and two games is a thin sample.

Recent form pulls in different directions. Montreal won its last game 2-1 on the road with two days of rest, while St. Louis lost 0-4 at home with three days off. Montreal is 3-8 against the spread, though, and St. Louis is 5-6. On Montreal's side, Cole Caufield carries the team's highest posted shots line at 3.5.

The moneyline has moved toward Montreal, with the Blues' implied win probability going from 53.5% to 51%. The sheet calls that minor, so it does not carry much weight. Bets and money disagree: 59% of bets are on St. Louis, while 62% of money is on Montreal. The sheet labels the move against the bet majority as reverse line movement, but at this size it is a small adjustment.

The total is more one-sided. It sits at 6.5 and has not moved from the open, with 93% of bets and 94% of money on the Over. Prices are Over +103 and Under -124. Both teams have gone over the closing total in 63.6% of their games this season, but Montreal's last three road games have gone under.

The starting goalies are not known. Sam Montembeault is on injured reserve for Montreal, but who starts for either side is unconfirmed, and that matters for a game this close. Overall, Montreal's record and shot share point one way, St. Louis's power play and the earlier results point the other, and the market treats the two sides as nearly even.