Islanders' Defense Against Nashville's Power Play on a Short Turnaround

Both teams carry a 54.5% standings points percentage, rank 13, after 11 games, and the moneyline matches that: Nashville Predators -120, New York Islanders +101, against an open of -119 and +100. Nashville won both completed meetings this season, 2-1 in January and 4-3 in February. The question tonight is whether the Islanders' defensive profile can hold up against a Nashville side playing its third game in four nights.

On paper the Islanders have the better defensive numbers. They allow 2.64 goals per game, rank 5, and their team save percentage is 91.3%, rank 3. Nashville allows 3.18 goals per game, rank 13, with a 89.8% save percentage, rank 10. Neither team scores much: Nashville is at 2.82 per game, rank 21, and New York at 2.91, rank 18. With 11 games played, all of this is a thin sample.

Nashville's shot profile is weaker. Its shot share is 46.7%, rank 27, and it allows 29.4 shots on goal per game, where the Islanders allow 26.3. Special teams is where Nashville has an edge to offer. Its power play converts 33.3%, rank 3, and it meets an Islanders penalty kill at 86.1%, rank 4, so that is a real strength-on-strength contest. The Islanders' power play is 17.6%, rank 22, against a Nashville penalty kill at 85.7%, rank 5.

The schedule is close to even. Nashville beat Colorado 6-2 at home last time out, with Steven Stamkos scoring twice according to the news. The Islanders lost 3-6 on the road two days ago. Nashville also rests two days but is on the third game in four nights. Nashville reports no injuries. The Islanders placed Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie on injured reserve this week, and Mathew Barzal remains on injured reserve with a knee injury, which leaves them thinner up front.

The betting splits are lopsided but the prices have not moved. On the puck line, Nashville -1.5 is +204 and Islanders +1.5 is -255, with 89% of bets and 86% of money on New York. On the moneyline, the majority runs the other way: 73% of bets and 78% of money on Nashville. The total is 5.5, unchanged, with Over -122 and Under +100. Over has 80% of bets and 70% of money, even though only 36.4% of Islanders games have gone over the closing total. Nashville's figure is 50%. The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in eight straight road games in this context, a description of what has happened rather than a forecast.

Starting goalies are not known. That matters here because the save-percentage gap is one of the main points separating these teams.

The evidence is mixed. The Islanders' defense and goaltending numbers, and the shot-share gap, favor them. Nashville's power play, its two wins in the season series, and the Islanders' injured-reserve additions favor the home side. The market sees it as nearly even.