Detroit's Shot Edge Meets Larkin's Absence and Two Weak Special Teams

Detroit is a -158 moneyline favourite against a Chicago team that is 4-8-0, and most of the season-long process numbers sit on Detroit's side. Two things could complicate that: a special-teams matchup that cuts both ways, and Dylan Larkin's absence from the Red Wings lineup. Each team has played 12 games, so every number here carries a small-sample caveat.

The clearest gap is shot volume. Detroit's shot share is 53.7%, rank 9; Chicago's is 42.1%, rank 31. Detroit takes 29.8 shots on goal per game, and Chicago allows 30 per game. Goals give a more muted picture. Chicago scores 2.17 per game, rank 25, while Detroit scores 2.75 per game, rank 21, and Chicago allows 3.67 per game, rank 23. Detroit has the better process, but neither offence is producing much.

Special teams is where the evidence conflicts. Chicago's power play converts at 10.3%, rank 31, but Detroit's penalty kill succeeds at 65.8%, rank 29. A weak unit meets a weak unit, so penalties on Detroit are the most direct way for Chicago to narrow the gap. Detroit's own power play is 21.4%, rank 15, against a Chicago penalty kill of 79%, rank 17.

On personnel, Larkin shares Detroit's highest posted shots line at 3.5 with Alex DeBrincat and is listed Out. The injury table calls it not injury related, and a report says he is held out for trade-related reasons. Detroit is also without defenseman Albert Johansson. Chicago lists Bowen Byram as Out and Alex Vlasic as day-to-day, which matters for a defence allowing 30 shots on goal per game.

The price movement is small. The moneyline opened Detroit -177 and now sits at Detroit -158, Chicago +134, with Detroit's implied win probability going from 63.9% to 61.2%. The sheet labels that move minor, so it is not meaningful evidence, even though it ran against the 88% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline money on Detroit. On the puck line, Detroit -1.5 is +160 and Chicago +1.5 is -195. Seventy-five percent of bets are on Chicago, while money is split 50% each way.

The total is 5.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -123 and Under +102. Fifty-nine percent of bets and 60% of money are on the Under. The streaks conflict: Detroit has gone over the total in five straight games, and Chicago has gone under in four straight. Detroit's games have gone past regulation 41.7% of the time, against 8.3% for Chicago. Chicago has lost five straight on the road, and Detroit has failed to cover the puck line in five straight at home after a win. Those are descriptions, not predictions. The teams split their two meetings last season, each winning on the other's ice.

Starting goalies are not known.