Buffalo's Shot Share Edge Meets Anaheim's Power Play and Finishing

Buffalo arrives at Honda Center as the moneyline favourite at -144, facing an Anaheim team on four straight home losses that dropped its last game 5-6 at home. The central question is whether Buffalo's territorial edge outweighs Anaheim's scoring efficiency and power play, in a game where both goaltending units rank near the bottom of the league. Buffalo's team save percentage is 87.6%, rank 29; Anaheim's is 87.5%, rank 30.

Territory favours the visitors. Buffalo's shot share is 51.2%, rank 11, while Anaheim's is 46.1%, rank 28, and Anaheim takes 23.4 shots on goal per game. Anaheim still scores more per game, 3.08 goals, rank 15, than Buffalo's 2.75, rank 21, because it converts 13.2% of its shots against Buffalo's 10%. Both teams have played only 12 games, so that gap in finishing is weak evidence either way.

Special teams are where the matchup has a clear tilt. Anaheim's power play converts 23.7%, rank 9, and Buffalo's penalty kill sits at 71.4%, rank 25. In the other direction, Buffalo's power play is 9.8%, rank 32, so Anaheim's penalty kill of 77.5%, rank 19, faces little pressure on paper.

Availability is thin on both sides. Buffalo is without Jiri Kulich, who is in concussion protocol, and Konsta Helenius, with Justin Danforth newly on injured reserve, which strips forward depth. Goaltender Alex Lyon remains on injured reserve after a setback, with no timeline. Anaheim has Ryan Poehling out with a knee injury expected to cost 6-8 weeks. Buffalo's recent form is better: it won its previous game 2-0 on the road, and it has 10 straight puck-line covers in road games against non-division, non-conference opponents. Anaheim has failed to cover four straight at home. Streaks describe what has happened; they do not predict.

The market move is modest. The moneyline went from Buffalo -131 to -144, with Anaheim moving from +110 to +121; its implied win probability went from 47.6% to 45.2%, a minor move. Bets are 71% Buffalo on the moneyline while money is 84% Anaheim, so tickets and dollars disagree. The move toward Buffalo ran against the money majority, which the sheet defines as reverse line movement, though its size is minor. On the puck line, 72% of bets and 72% of money are on Anaheim. The total is 6.5, unchanged, with 83% of bets and 88% of money on the Over at -121.

Buffalo's games have gone over the closing total 58.3% of the time, against 41.7% for Anaheim. Starting goalies are not known, which leaves the weakest part of both teams' profiles unresolved. Overall the evidence is mixed: shot share and recent road form point toward Buffalo, while Anaheim's power play and finishing keep it competitive.