Patriots' passing offense meets Lions' rank-32 pass defense in Munich

Detroit is a 2.5-point favourite in a game staged in Munich, and the central question is whether a Patriots passing attack that ranks well can exploit a Lions pass defense that does not. Drake Maye's offense averages 249.6 passing yards per game, rank 9, and 5.97 yards per play, rank 5. Detroit allows 260.9 passing yards per game, rank 32. Conditions look mild: 46°F, light wind, overcast.

Detroit's case rests on balance and ball security. The Lions are 6-2 with four straight wins, score 27.8 points per game, rank 5, and have allowed 15.5 points per game over the last four. Jared Goff's offense commits 0.63 turnovers per game, while New England commits 2.11. That matters after the Patriots' 27-45 home loss to Green Bay, a game in which the Packers forced four turnovers.

New England's defense is the weaker unit on paper: 5.52 yards allowed per play, rank 22, and 28.3 points allowed per game over the last four, against 23 for the season. But Detroit allows 5.42 yards per play, rank 21, so neither side is stout overall. The ground is where both defenses hold up: New England allows 96.7 rushing yards per game, rank 8, and Detroit 94.1, rank 7. That points toward points coming through the air, where Detroit's secondary is thin. Kerby Joseph and D.J. Reed are out, and Detroit acquired safety Andre Cisco from the Jets on Monday.

New England has its own problems. Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with a knee issue and the team is awaiting MRI results, A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are out, center Ben Brown is doubtful, and Will Campbell and Carlton Davis III are questionable. Detroit is without center Cade Mays. Several of those statuses could still change before kickoff.

The spread has not moved from Detroit -2.5, priced -119 on the Lions and -102 on the Patriots. The moneyline did move, to Detroit -152 and New England +126, taking Detroit's implied win probability from 54.3% to 60.3%, a notable shift. The total rose to 51 from 49.5, a small move toward the Over. The totals trends fit that number: New England has gone over in six straight games and in 66.7% of games this season, while Detroit's rate is 62.5%.

Against the spread, New England is 3-5-1 and has failed to cover four straight, while Detroit is 4-4. Those are descriptions of results, not forecasts. The evidence is mixed. Detroit's ball security and recent defensive form point toward the Lions, while a rank-32 pass defense facing a top-ten passing offense fits the elevated total. Detroit's four-game home winning streak carries little weight given the Munich venue.