Seattle's top-ranked defense meets a Raiders unit giving up 30 a game

Seattle's strong defense against Las Vegas's porous one frames this game, with a quarterback change adding uncertainty. Seattle is favoured by 3.5 at Allegiant Stadium, indoors, and has changed passers: Drew Lock is the starter, while Sam Darnold, who led the team in pass attempts against Chicago the game before, is out with a quadriceps injury.

Seattle's profile is defense-first. It allows 18 points per game (rank 4) and 4.14 yards per play (rank 1), and its passing yards allowed of 155.1 per game rank 2. That meets Las Vegas's strength: 259.7 passing yards per game (rank 5) and 26.4 points per game (rank 8). Kirk Cousins has led the Raiders in pass attempts in each of their last three games, and Las Vegas passes on 59.3% of its plays, so the key contest is through the air. The ground game offers little help, at 71.3 rushing yards per game (rank 31) against a Seattle run defense allowing 89.1 per game (rank 4).

The other side looks lopsided on paper. Las Vegas allows 29.8 points per game (rank 28) and 6.09 yards per play (rank 31), and its rushing yards allowed of 151.2 per game rank 32. Over its last four games it has conceded 34.8 points per game. Seattle's offense is ordinary, at 22.4 points per game (rank 18) and 17 per game over its last four, so it may not fully exploit those holes. Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson are both out on the offensive line. Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu are out on defense, which could blunt some of Seattle's advantage.

The market has barely moved. The spread is where it opened at Seattle -3.5, and the total is unchanged at 43.5. The moneyline shifted slightly toward Las Vegas, now Raiders +149 and Seahawks -183, with the Raiders' implied win probability going from 37.7% to 40.2%, a small move. The total is where the evidence conflicts most. Las Vegas has gone over in seven straight games and in 77.8% of its games this season, while Seattle's games have gone over 44.4% of the time and Seattle has allowed 14.3 points per game over its last four.

The Raiders' recent form is poor. They have lost seven straight non-division, non-conference home games and failed to cover five straight in that spot, though they are 6-3 against the spread overall. They arrive after a 17-38 road loss to San Francisco in which Cousins threw an interception returned for a touchdown. Seattle comes off a 17-3 home win and is 3-4-2 against the spread. Streaks describe what has happened and do not predict what comes next.

The evidence is split. Seattle's defensive numbers and Las Vegas's run defense point one way, while Las Vegas's passing offense, Seattle's line absences and the quarterback change cut the other. Lock is listed as questionable with an oblique injury.