Can a stalled Colts offense exploit Dallas's league-worst run defense?

Dallas is a 5.5-point road favourite at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the season numbers explain why. The Cowboys score 27.4 points per game (rank 7), while the Colts allow 27.8 points per game (rank 29). Both teams arrive after a bad Sunday: Dallas lost 30-33 at home to Arizona, and Indianapolis lost 7-42 at Jacksonville. The question is whether Indianapolis can score enough to take advantage of a Dallas defense with real holes.

The Colts' offense is the weaker unit in this game. It scores 20.1 points per game (rank 25), and that has dropped to 14.8 per game over its last 4. It gains 4.49 yards per play (rank 31) and throws for 174.6 yards per game (rank 28). It also commits 1.88 turnovers per game. Daniel Jones is the starting quarterback, and Dak Prescott starts for Dallas. The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor.

Dallas's defense is where Indianapolis has an opening. The Cowboys allow 5.93 yards per play (rank 29) and 152.8 rushing yards per game (rank 32). The Colts run for 116.5 yards per game (rank 16), and Jonathan Taylor has 47 carries over the team's last 3 games. ESPN also reported the Colts are open to trading him; that is context only, and he is listed as RB1. Dallas rushes for just 94.1 yards per game (rank 25) but passes for 247.9 (rank 9).

On injuries, Dallas is without KaVontae Turpin and Luke Schoonmaker. Jake Ferguson is questionable, and a report says he has a chance to play. Caleb Downs is also questionable after leaving Sunday's game for a concussion evaluation. Indianapolis has Justin Walley out and Cam Taylor-Britt on injured reserve, which thins the cornerback group against a passing game where CeeDee Lamb has 41 targets over the last 3 games.

The spread is where it opened, Dallas -5.5, with Dallas at -113 and Indianapolis at -108. The moneyline is the notable move: Indianapolis went from +174 to +211, and its implied win probability went from 36.5% to 32.2% (4.3 percentage points), toward Dallas. The total is 51.5, up 1 point from 50.5, which the sheet labels minor and is not evidence of anything. Dallas has gone over in 4 straight road games. Indianapolis has gone over in 3 straight at home, and it has also failed to cover 4 straight at home. These streaks describe what has happened and do not predict this game.

The evidence mostly points one way: a stronger offense against a defense that ranks 29th in points allowed. The counterpoint is Dallas's defense, which has its own weaknesses. Both teams have played only 8 games, with Dallas 3-5 and Indianapolis 2-6. Public betting splits are not available, so there is no read on how tickets and money are distributed.