Seattle's top-ranked defense against a depleted Arizona offense at an 11.5-point price

Seattle is an 11.5-point home favourite over Arizona, and the evidence mostly explains why. The Seahawks won the 2026-09-20 meeting 31-7 in Arizona. The gap between the two defenses is the widest thing on the sheet. What could narrow it is Arizona's thinning receiving group and how little Seattle's own offense adds beyond its defense.

Seattle allows 17.9 points per game, rank 3, and 3.99 yards per play, rank 1. Its pass defense allows 144.4 yards per game, rank 1. Arizona allows 29.8 points per game, rank 31, and its offense gains 4.78 yards per play, rank 28. The samples are small, eight games for Arizona and seven for Seattle. Still, the last-four-game figures match the season picture, with Arizona allowing 30.3 points per game and Seattle 18.8. Seattle's offense is ordinary at 24 points per game, rank 11, and 5.36 yards per play, rank 16. The edge comes from defense rather than scoring.

Jacoby Brissett is Arizona's quarterback after 23 attempts in the 33-30 overtime win at Dallas. One ESPN headline says Gardner Minshew was named the starter and Brissett moved to QB3. That conflicts with the roster table, so it is a report only. The receiving group is thinner either way. Kendrick Bourne is out with a fractured tibia. Michael Wilson, who has 30 targets over the last three games, has two broken ribs and is questionable. Bam Knight is questionable in the concussion protocol, and Jeremiyah Love is questionable with a new ankle injury. Trey McBride, also at 30 targets over the last three games, is the steadier piece.

Sam Darnold is Seattle's quarterback, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the receivers with 31 targets over the last three games. Rashid Shaheed is out, and so is tackle Charles Cross. For an offense with modest scoring numbers, that is the main factor working against a rout. The forecast is rain, 54°F and a 6 mph south wind.

The market has not moved. The spread is Seattle -11.5, where it opened, and the total is 44.5, also unchanged. The moneyline is Seattle -751 and Arizona +512, a change from the open that the sheet calls none of note. Betting splits are not available, so there is no read on who is backing which side. Arizona is 4-4 against the spread, with four straight covers as an away underdog. Seattle is 2-3-2. Seattle has gone over in four straight home games after a win, yet its season over rate is 42.9% against Arizona's 62.5%. Seattle's defense points toward a lower total, and Arizona's porous defense points the other way.

The sheet is inconsistent about Seattle's schedule. The team block shows a bye and 14 days since a 20-3 home win. The personnel and injury sections refer to a Monday game against Chicago on 2026-11-02. Seattle's rest and recent form are therefore not clear.