Bills' top-ranked offense meets a Jets team in a four-game skid

Buffalo arrives at MetLife as a 7.5-point road favourite against a Jets team that has lost four straight. The Bills won the most recent meeting 35-8 on January 4. The question is whether a Jets pass defence that ranks well can slow the league's top-ranked scoring offence, and whether a Jets offence that struggles to finish drives can keep up.

Buffalo's profile is dominant. The Bills score 33.3 points per game (rank 1) and gain 6.33 yards per play (rank 1), and they run for 148.4 yards per game (rank 2). They are 6-1, coming off a bye, with Josh Allen at quarterback. Seven games is a smaller sample than the Jets' nine, but the numbers are consistent with the 33 points per game Buffalo has averaged over its last four.

The Jets' best argument is on the pass side. They allow 197.8 passing yards per game (rank 4), and Buffalo throws on only 48.6% of its plays. That strength meets the less-used part of the Bills' attack. The ground matchup favours Buffalo: the Jets allow 128 rushing yards per game (rank 26) against the league's second-ranked rushing offence.

New York's offence is the larger problem. The Jets score 20.2 points per game (rank 24), and only 40.7% of their red-zone trips end in touchdowns. In the 12-35 loss at Kansas City they did not score a touchdown. Geno Smith starts again, but Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion. Defensively the Jets have allowed 31.8 points per game over their last four. Buffalo's defence is exposed too, allowing 254.7 passing yards per game (rank 30), so the Jets can move the ball. Buffalo's own protection is a question, with offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson both out.

The market has not moved. The spread opened at Bills -7.5 and is still there, and the moneyline is essentially unchanged at Bills -465, Jets +334. The total is 51, up half a point from 50.5, a small move. Buffalo has gone over in four straight road games and in 71.4% of games this season, against 44.4% for the Jets. The forecast is 53°F with a 14 mph south wind and overcast skies.

The streaks line up with the stats. Buffalo has won five straight as an away favourite. The Jets have failed to cover four straight at home in-division games. Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread and New York 4-5. The evidence leans heavily one way, and the Jets' passing defence is the main counterweight. Their red-zone finishing and the loss of Wilson make it hard to see how they exploit it.