Can Arizona's Weak Defense Contain Dallas, and Why Did the Total Climb?

Dallas is a 7-point home favourite (Dallas Cowboys -7, both sides at -109), and the case rests on one mismatch: the Cowboys score 27 points per game, rank 5, against an Arizona defense that allows 29.7 points per game, rank 30. Arizona also gives up 6.11 yards per play, rank 31. Dak Prescott runs a Dallas passing game averaging 259.3 yards per game, rank 7, while Jacoby Brissett starts for an Arizona offense that gains 4.59 yards per play, rank 29.

Dallas is not clean on the other side. The Cowboys allow 145.7 rushing yards per game, rank 32, and 5.92 yards per play, rank 29, so Arizona has openings. Whether the Cardinals can use them is another matter: they rush for 96 yards per game, rank 23, and finish only 42.9% of red-zone trips with a touchdown, against 74.1% for Dallas. A report says rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is expected back from an ankle injury, which would help.

Arizona does hold an edge in ball security. The Cardinals rank 6 in turnover margin and take the ball away 1.14 times per game; Dallas takes it away 0.57 times per game and ranks 11 in margin. Dallas won 38-21 on the road last time out, Arizona lost 16-30 at home, and the Cardinals have allowed 31.8 points per game over their last 4. Both teams have played only 7 games, so these averages are noisy. Arizona won the last regular-season meeting 27-17 at Dallas; the preseason game, a 34-13 Dallas win, tells little.

Injuries touch both sides. Dallas is without wide receiver KaVontae Turpin and linebacker Dee Winters, while George Pickens and defensive tackle Kenny Clark are questionable; Clark matters for a run defense that ranks 32 in rushing yards allowed. Arizona is missing guard Jon Gaines II and defensive tackle Walter Nolen III, with cornerback Max Melton and safety Andrew Wingard questionable.

The total is the notable market move. It opened at 51.5 and is now 54.5, up 3 points toward the Over, yet 56% of bets and 56% of money are on the Under, so the price moved against the majority on both measures. Dallas has gone over the total in 3 straight home games against non-division, non-conference opponents, which describes what has happened, not what will. The spread moved only 0.5 points from Dallas -6.5, a minor change, with bets (47% Dallas, 53% Arizona) and money (48% Dallas, 52% Arizona) roughly even.

On the moneyline, Dallas is -330 and Arizona +259. 90% of bets are on Dallas but 64% of money is on Arizona; the price moved only slightly toward Dallas, so this is a split in who is betting, not a price signal. The game is indoors with the roof closed, and no officials tendencies data is available.