Can Miami's run game offset New England's per-play edge without A.J. Brown?

New England arrives at Hard Rock Stadium as a 7-point favourite, and the season records explain why: the Patriots are 4-3 and the Dolphins are 1-5. The two factors most likely to decide it are whether New England's efficient offence can keep working without A.J. Brown, who has been ruled out, and whether Miami can generate anything through the air. The last meeting, on 2026-01-04, was a 38-10 New England win, but it is a single game and thin evidence.

The per-play numbers favour the Patriots clearly. New England gains 6.01 yards per play, rank 4, while Miami allows 5.74 yards per play, rank 25. Miami's defence also lets opponents convert 52.1% of third downs. Miami scores 16.3 points per game, rank 28, against a New England defence allowing 20.4 points per game, rank 9.

Miami's one clear strength is the ground game at 131.5 rushing yards per game, rank 7, but it meets a New England run defence allowing 95.3 rushing yards per game, rank 8. Malik Willis starts at quarterback for Miami, whose passing offence produces 162 yards per game, rank 30. The Dolphins won 28-25 on the road last time out, yet they score 18 points per game over their last four. With only six games played, those rates can still move.

Drake Maye will run the New England offence without Brown and without running back TreVeyon Henderson, who is out with an illness. The Patriots have still scored 31 points per game over their last four, against 22.9 for the season. Miami is without offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor, and cornerbacks JuJu Brents and Reese Taylor are questionable, which matters against a passing game ranked 9th at 253 yards per game. New England's own questionable list includes cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Christian Elliss.

The spread is New England -7, from an opening -7.5, with Miami at -112 and New England at -106. That half-point move toward Miami is minor, so it is not evidence either way, even though 77% of bets and 80% of money are on New England. The moneyline is New England -361 and Miami +279, with 97% of bets on the Patriots. The total is 43, down from 44.5, also a minor move, with 75% of bets on the Over. New England has covered four straight on the road after a loss and gone over the total in four straight games, while Miami has gone under in three straight at home after a win. Those streaks describe the past, not what comes next.

The forecast is 81°F with rain and a 15 mph ENE wind, which adds some uncertainty for a New England offence that throws on 51.9% of its plays. No officials tendencies data is available.