Boston Celtics Heavy Favourites, But Tatum Doubt and a Shrinking Spread Cloud Milwaukee Game

Boston is a large home favourite against a Milwaukee team that is 1-6, yet the price has dropped by a notable amount and the Celtics' availability is unsettled. The spread is Boston Celtics -11.5, down from an opening Boston Celtics -14.5. The two questions are whether Jayson Tatum plays and how a Boston side on its third game in four nights handles a number this large.

The season numbers favour Boston clearly, though each team has played only seven games. Boston's net rating is 4.9 points per 100 possessions, rank 9. Milwaukee's is -12.3, rank 27. The gap is mostly on defence: Milwaukee allows 124.1 points per game, rank 28, and opponents shoot an effective field-goal percentage of 54.8% against it. Boston forces turnovers on 17.7% of possessions, while Milwaukee's own turnover rate is 16%. Boston also gets to the line more, with a free-throw rate of .311 against .221.

Boston is not arriving in great form, though. It lost 93-109 on the road in its previous game. Milwaukee also lost its last game, 100-112 on the road. In the four most recent meetings, Boston won the last three, 133-101, 108-81 and 107-79, after Milwaukee took the first, 116-101. Those results favour Boston, but they come from last season and the sheet does not say how much of those rosters carries over.

On injuries, Tatum is listed as questionable for rest, and Payton Pritchard is questionable with a right shoulder contusion. Devin Carter is out with mononucleosis. Milwaukee reports no injuries. Tatum's status is the largest swing factor, since the sheet does not say how much the spread already assumes about it.

The market is the most notable part of the sheet. The spread moved 3 points toward Milwaukee even though 80% of bets are on Boston, which is reverse line movement. Milwaukee holds 64% of the money, so tickets and dollars sit on opposite sides. The moneyline tells the same story: Boston is -560, down from -947, and its implied win probability went from 90.4% to 84.8%. Bets on the moneyline are 96% Boston. The total of 223.5 is down 2 points from 225.5, a minor move that carries no weight, even with 79% of bets and 84% of money on the Over.

On style, Milwaukee plays at 104.4 possessions per game, rank 5, while Boston plays at 100.4, rank 22. Milwaukee's games have gone over the total 71.4% of the time and Boston's 28.6%. Boston has also gone under in seven straight home games. These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions, and the samples are small.

Milwaukee's road run is bleak: nine straight road losses and eight straight as an away underdog. Boston has won six straight in its home streak category. Against the spread, Milwaukee is 2-5 and Boston is 3-4, so neither side has been reliable for backers. No officiating information is available.