Short-Handed Pacers Face Hawks Laying 9.5: Absences, Fatigue and a Falling Total

Indiana is badly short-handed, and the price reflects it. Atlanta is favoured by 9.5 at Indiana, a number that opened at 5.5. The Pacers list Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring, at least the next two weeks), Pascal Siakam (rested), Andrew Nembhard (cervical strain) and Ivica Zubac (ankle) as out, along with Aaron Nesmith (rest) and T.J. McConnell (hamstring). Those absences, more than season-to-date form, are the main factor in this game.

The season numbers are a thin guide: both teams have played seven games. Atlanta is 3-4 with a net rating of 0.1 points per 100 possessions, rank 17. Indiana is 2-5 at -3.7, rank 21, and its defensive rating of 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions ranks 23. The two offensive ratings are almost level, 110.9 for Atlanta (rank 16) and 110.7 for Indiana (rank 17). Atlanta is a middling team on paper, so the size of the spread owes more to who is missing than to any gap in quality.

Schedule adds to Indiana's problem. This is the second game of a back-to-back and the third in four nights, after a 90-98 home loss. The Pacers have lost six straight at home and four straight overall. Atlanta has had two days off, though its last game was a 99-121 road loss, and it has gaps too: Jock Landale is out, Kingston Flemings is suspended, and Jalen Johnson is questionable with an ankle injury. Obi Toppin is questionable for Indiana and Larry Nance Jr. is reported doubtful with illness.

The spread move is large but ordinary. It went 4 points toward Atlanta, with 78% of bets and 89% of money on the Hawks, so the move and both majorities point the same way. The moneyline is Atlanta -422, Indiana +317, with Indiana's implied win probability falling from 37.2% to 24%. Against the spread, both teams are 3-4, though Indiana has covered three straight as a home underdog, a run that describes the past and nothing more.

The total is the more interesting market. It dropped 3 points to 229.5, toward the Under, while 83% of bets and 83% of money sit on the Over. That is reverse line movement on both measures. Indiana's games have gone under the total in three straight at home, and 42.9% of its games have gone over this season. Atlanta's games have gone over 57.1% of the time and the Hawks play at a pace of 104.5 possessions per game, rank 7, so the evidence on scoring pulls in two directions.

Recent meetings carry little weight. Atlanta won three of the last four, including a 119-117 preseason game at Indiana on October 10, and Indiana won 129-124 on February 1, but a preseason game and older results say little about tonight's depleted Pacers. Johnson's status is unresolved, and a change there would matter for Atlanta. Officials are listed as Zach Zarba, with no tendencies data available.