Unbeaten Memphis against a fast New Orleans team: does efficiency or tempo decide it?

Memphis is 6-0 and ranks first in the NBA in scoring at 121.2 points per game, while New Orleans is 2-4 and allows 117.8 points per game, rank 23. The central question is tempo and defence: the Pelicans play at 106.9 possessions per game, rank 2, and score 119.7 points per game, rank 7, so they can keep pace if the game is fast. Memphis, at 102.5 possessions per game, rank 13, has the stronger efficiency numbers. The Grizzlies are 5.5-point favourites.

The efficiency figures separate these teams more than the scoring totals do. Memphis has a net rating of 13.3 points per 100 possessions, rank 2; New Orleans sits at 1, rank 15. Memphis has held opponents to a 49.3% effective field-goal percentage, while the Pelicans have allowed 54.2%. One caution: Memphis is shooting 41.7% from three on a 42.1% attempt rate, and six games is a small sample, so that figure is the least settled part of its profile.

Availability is mixed. Dejounte Murray is Day-To-Day and listed as questionable for a personal reason, Jordan Poole is out with an ankle issue, and Yves Missi is out with a knee issue. For Memphis, Quinten Post is questionable with an ankle problem and Scotty Pippen Jr. is listed as doubtful with a back issue. New Orleans arrives off a 121-99 win over Atlanta in which Saddiq Bey scored 25 points off the bench and Jeremiah Fears added 20; Memphis beat Sacramento 136-105 behind 27 points from rookie Cameron Boozer.

Recent meetings point the other way from the standings. New Orleans won both January meetings, 133-127 in Memphis and 114-106 at home, after Memphis took the two earlier ones, 128-122 and 133-128. The streaks also pull in different directions: New Orleans has lost 11 straight on the road, yet has covered seven straight in-division road spread games, while Memphis has six straight covers but four straight in-division home losses. These describe what has happened, not what comes next.

The spread opened at Memphis -6.5 and sits at -5.5. That is a minor move and carries no real information on its own, even though it went against the 75% of bets and 67% of money on Memphis. The total is different: it opened at 235.5 and is now 232.5, a notable move toward the Under, while 86% of bets and 84% of money are on the Over. That is reverse line movement against both bets and money. The moneyline is Memphis -202, New Orleans +166, also a minor shift.

Overall, the team-quality evidence favours Memphis clearly, but it rests on six games, and the Pelicans' pace and January results keep the margin open. The total is where price movement and public support disagree most. Tony Brothers is listed as an official, but this sheet has no tendency data for him.