Brewers Lead 3-1, but Can Rays Extend the World Series Again?

Milwaukee leads this World Series 3-1, but Game 5 comes after Tampa Bay won Game 4 by 4-3. News reports say the Rays did it with a two-run rally in the 12th inning when the Brewers were three outs from their first title. Before that, Milwaukee won 10-1 at Tropicana Field. Tonight rests on two things: a pitching matchup between two strong starters, and whether Milwaukee's season-long edge in run production and bullpen form outweighs a Rays team that has just shown it can finish games.

Jacob Misiorowski has the stronger profile of the two probable starters. Over 33 starts he has a 1.87 ERA, a 2.16 FIP and 12.73 strikeouts per 9 innings. Drew Rasmussen, over 34 starts, has a 2.61 ERA, a 2.78 FIP and 9.2 strikeouts per 9 innings, but his walk rate is lower at 1.69 per 9 innings against 2.35. Both are strong. The edge on ERA, FIP and strikeouts goes to Milwaukee's starter, while Rasmussen is better at avoiding walks.

Behind the starters, Milwaukee's season numbers are better in most areas. The Brewers score 5.1 runs per game (rank 2) and own the top on-base percentage at .338 (rank 1). Tampa Bay scores 4.47 per game (rank 12) and 3.6 per game over its last 10. Run prevention is closer: the Rays allow 3.97 runs per game (rank 6) against Milwaukee's 3.74 (rank 3). The bullpens separate more clearly recently, with Milwaukee at a 1.31 ERA over the last 30 days (rank 2) and Tampa Bay at 3.81 (rank 6).

The moneyline is Milwaukee Brewers -148, Tampa Bay Rays +124. It opened at Brewers -138 and Rays +114. The sheet labels that move minor, so it is not evidence of anything. Bets (67%) and money (69%) both favor Milwaukee, the same direction the price moved. The run line is Milwaukee -1.5 at +124, with Tampa Bay +1.5 at -149, and 79% of bets and 81% of money are on the Brewers there. The total is 6.5, unchanged since opening, with Over -109 and Under -111. Over has 74% of bets and 67% of money.

The evidence points in different directions on scoring. Tampa Bay has gone over the total in 3 straight home games, which describes recent games and predicts nothing. Meanwhile both starters have strong run-prevention numbers, and Milwaukee's bullpen has been excellent over the last 30 days. Junior Caminero hurt his left foot during Game 4's rally, though a report says he will play. Lineups for both sides are listed as projected, not confirmed.

The series is only four games, which is thin evidence next to the 174-game and 175-game regular-season samples. Those samples favor Milwaukee in most categories, though the Rays' 106-69 record shows they are no weak opponent.