Rutgers at Penn State: Does Last Year's 40-36 Shootout Repeat?

Rutgers visits Beaver Stadium on Saturday, November 21 at 3:30 PM ET, and the most recent meeting frames the matchup. Penn State won 40-36 at Rutgers on November 29, 2025. The central question is whether this rematch is another high-scoring game, and the evidence points more toward scoring than toward either side.

The streaks are the loudest items, though they need care. Penn State has gone over the total in five straight home games after a win, and that run fits tonight's setting. Rutgers' runs include six straight overs, five straight spread covers after a loss, and six straight losses as a home underdog. All of them were built at home, so they describe Rutgers in its own stadium, not on this trip. They are descriptions of what has happened, and they carry little weight for a road game.

The backfields look similar. Penn State's Carson Hansen has 46 carries over the last three games, with Cam Wallace at 29. Rutgers' Antwan Raymond has 44 carries over the same span, with Clay Thevenin at 31. Both teams use a lead back with a clear second option and a similar workload split, so ground usage does not separate them.

The passing games differ more in how targets are distributed. Rocco Becht led Penn State with 27 attempts against Washington on November 7, and AJ Surace led Rutgers with 24 against Wisconsin the same day. Both have started each of their team's last three games. Penn State's top wideout, Chase Sowell, has 15 receptions over the last three games, and tight end Andrew Rappleyea has 13. Rutgers' leading wideout, Ben Black III, has 7 over the same stretch. That suggests Penn State's passing offense is more concentrated and more productive, though three games is a small sample.

Neither team has an injury reported. One news item involves Rutgers: sources say KJ Duff, who projects as a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, is out for the season after ankle surgery and expected to resume full football activities in January. Because the absence runs through the season, it is not a new variable for Saturday, and it does not appear in the injury report.

The forecast is mild: 44°F, wind 4 mph from the WSW, and partly cloudy. Nothing there should interfere with passing or kicking, so conditions do not argue against another high-scoring game.

Overall, the evidence is thin and mostly balanced. Penn State has the more relevant streak and the more concentrated receiving production. Rutgers' streaks come from a different setting, and last year's four-point margin shows the teams can score against each other. The case for points is stronger than the case for either team.