Missouri's defensive edge against Kentucky's strong record after two bye-week bounce-backs

Missouri is a 6-point home favourite over Kentucky on Saturday night in Columbia, and both teams arrive off a bye after heavy losses. Kentucky lost 6-34 on the road, and Missouri lost 20-34 at home. The question is whether Missouri's defensive numbers outweigh a Kentucky team whose 7-2 record and 7-2 mark against the spread look better than its season profile.

Defense is the clearest separator. Missouri allows 20.1 points per game (rank 30) and 4.76 yards per play (rank 28). Kentucky allows 25.8 points per game (rank 65) and 5.21 yards per play (rank 56). The run game is where that shows up most. Missouri gives up 99.2 rushing yards per game (rank 15), while Kentucky averages 163.7 (rank 57). Jason Patterson has the most carries among Kentucky's backs over its last three games, with 31.

Both pass defenses are exposed. Kentucky allows 238.2 passing yards per game (rank 100) and Missouri allows 234.4 (rank 98). Missouri has the better passing offense, at 254.7 per game (rank 33), against Kentucky's 219.9 (rank 77). Austin Simmons threw 43 passes in Missouri's last game, and Kenny Minchey threw 34 for Kentucky. If this turns into a shootout through the air, Missouri has the stronger offense, but neither defense gives the other much resistance there.

Third down and the red zone favour Missouri's side, with a caveat. Kentucky's opponents convert 47.7% of third downs, while Kentucky converts 34.9% of its own. Missouri sits at 39.1% on offense and 38.7% allowed. Kentucky's defense does hold opponents to touchdowns on 90.9% of red-zone trips, which is a soft spot. Turnover margin is a wash, with Kentucky at rank 5 and Missouri at rank 6. Over the last four games Kentucky has scored 24 points per game and allowed 24.5, while Missouri has scored 21 and allowed 20.3.

The market treats Missouri as a moderate favourite. The spread opened at Missouri -6.5 and sits at -6 with -110 on both sides, a small move toward Kentucky. The moneyline is essentially unchanged at Missouri -214 and Kentucky +173. The total is 50, exactly where it opened. Kentucky has covered in seven of nine games this season, against four of nine for Missouri. Kentucky has also gone under the total in three straight games, while 55.6% of its games have gone over the closing total this season, against 44.4% for Missouri.

No injuries are reported on either side, and the forecast is 53°F with a 6 mph north wind and partial cloud. The picture is fairly consistent: Missouri has the better defense, passing offense and third-down profile, while Kentucky's results against the number are the main counterweight. With only nine games played for each team, that cover record is a modest sample.