Ohio State's Passing Attack Meets Nebraska's Run Defense in Lincoln After Both Teams' Byes

Ohio State visits Nebraska as a 5.5-point favourite, and both teams come off a bye following a loss. Ohio State lost 28-41 at home; Nebraska lost 13-24 on the road. The game turns on two questions: can the Buckeyes' pass-heavy offense solve a Nebraska defense that is strong against the run, and can a Cornhuskers offense that has stalled score enough to stay close?

Ohio State's season numbers are the stronger of the two. The Buckeyes score 35.7 points per game (rank 20), gain 6.47 yards per play (rank 19) and throw for 320.2 yards per game (rank 8). Luke Fahey threw 50 passes in the loss to Oregon, and Jeremiah Smith has 21 receptions over the last three games. The run game is much weaker at 147.7 yards per game (rank 81), so the offense depends on the air attack. Recent form is a concern: Ohio State has scored 27.5 per game over its last four and allowed 25.5, against 18.3 allowed for the season.

Nebraska's case rests on defense. The Cornhuskers allow 16.6 points per game (rank 15) and 90.3 rushing yards per game (rank 11). Opponents convert only 25.4% of third downs, and the defense averages 2.78 sacks per game. That is a useful profile against a quarterback who has been throwing heavily. The offense is the problem. Nebraska scores 30.2 per game on the season (rank 42) but only 13.5 over its last four, and it has lost four straight. Anthony Colandrea attempted 43 passes in the last loss, while Jamal Rule leads the backs with 31 carries over three games.

The market has not moved. Ohio State is -5.5 at -110 on both sides, as it opened, and the moneyline is Ohio State -203, Nebraska +165, also unchanged. The total is 47.5, where it opened. Nebraska is 6-3 against the spread this season and Ohio State 5-4, so the Cornhuskers' losing streak has not hurt them against the number. Ohio State has failed to cover four straight as a home favourite, but this is a road game, so that run applies only loosely.

The total is where the evidence conflicts most. Ohio State has gone over in five straight at home, and 55.6% of its games have gone over this season. Nebraska has gone under in four straight, and only 33.3% of its games have gone over. Rain is forecast for Lincoln, with 51°F and a 10 mph southeast wind, which fits the lower-scoring side, but the forecast is only context. The streaks describe what has happened and do not predict this game.

On the numbers, Ohio State has the better offense and the better per-play profile, while Nebraska's defense is as good as Ohio State's by most measures. Both teams have slipped recently, neither has an injury reported, and the market has made no adjustment. The evidence is mixed rather than one-sided.