Memphis's high-volume offense meets Navy's light usage in a rematch at Annapolis

Memphis arrives at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis on Saturday at 12:00 PM ET on a three-game winning streak, and it is a rematch of last year's meeting, which Navy won 28-17 at Memphis on 2025-11-28. That is the only recent head-to-head in the picture, and it is a year old, so it frames the game more than it informs it. The central question is how two very different offensive workloads meet.

Memphis has a well-defined passing attack. Marcus Stokes has led the team in pass attempts in each of its last three games, including 31 attempts against the South Florida Bulls on 2026-11-12. The targets are spread out: Jemyri Davis has 16 receptions over the last three games, Hunter Tipton 15, and both Stonka Burnside and Jermane Hayes 13. On the ground, Jaylin Carter has 60 carries over that span, with Manny Covey at 26, so the backfield runs through one lead back.

Navy's usage is far lighter in the passing game. Jackson Gutierrez has also led his team in attempts in each of the last three games, but he threw 11 times against the Temple Owls on 2026-11-07. Michael Barrow leads Navy's wide receivers with 6 receptions over three games. Vic Listorti has 11 carries and Jadyn Jones 9 over the same stretch. Those are small totals for a lead back, which suggests the ground work is being shared outside the two backs named here, or that recent games have been low in volume. Either way, they do not give a clean read on how Navy will move the ball.

Memphis's streaks add some color. It has won three straight and gone over the total in three straight games. Those runs describe what has happened, they are short samples, and they say little about how a different opponent and a different setting will change things. Memphis's recent games have involved scoring, but three games is thin evidence.

Conditions look unremarkable. The forecast is 59°F with a 5 mph wind from the north and partly cloudy skies, which should not meaningfully interfere with passing or kicking. Neither team reports any injuries, so the players above are the ones each side is expected to have available.

Taken together, the evidence is thin and only loosely conflicting. Memphis has the clearer, higher-volume profile and a three-game winning streak. Navy has last year's win in the series and home field, but its recent usage numbers are modest and hard to interpret. Nothing here separates the teams decisively, and the game is best treated as one without a strong statistical story.