Can Mississippi State's Losing Streak Be Stopped Against a Non-Covering Auburn?

Mississippi State hosts Auburn at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday at noon ET, and the story is the Bulldogs' slide. They have lost four straight overall and five straight in home games that follow a loss. Auburn arrives with a problem of its own against the spread, three straight failures to cover. The teams have not met in the last 400 days, so there is no recent head-to-head to weigh.

Mississippi State's streaks are the most consistent evidence here. The Bulldogs have failed to cover four straight games overall and three straight at home after a loss, and they have gone under the total in three straight. Together they describe a team that has not been winning, covering or pushing games over the number. Streaks only describe what has happened, though, and runs of this length can come from a handful of results rather than a stable trait.

The quarterbacks are the clearest individual matchup. Byrum Brown has led Auburn in pass attempts in each of its last three games, including 34 against Arkansas on November 7, which makes him the centre of the Tigers' passing game. AJ Swann attempted 26 passes for Mississippi State against Vanderbilt that same day. Brown's passing workload was the larger of the two. Neither team has a reported injury, so those roles are not being reshaped by absences.

On the ground, Mississippi State's work is concentrated. Fluff Bothwell has 48 carries over the last three games, while Kolin Wilson has 10. Auburn's backfield is more evenly divided, with Jeremiah Cobb at 23 carries and Omar Mabson II at 13 over the same span. That makes Bothwell the Bulldogs' primary ball-carrier by a wide margin.

The receiving groups are shaped differently too. Auburn's top three are tightly bunched over the last three games, led by Christian Neptune with 14 receptions and Keshaun Singleton with 13, with Chas Nimrod close behind. Mississippi State's Anthony Evans III and Marquis Johnson each have 13, then Zion Ragins is well back in third. Auburn's catches are spread across three options, while the Bulldogs rely on two.

Conditions look mild: a forecast of 60°F, an 11 mph wind from the south and partly cloudy skies, nothing likely to distort scoring either way. Overall, the evidence is thin and mostly about Mississippi State's form. The streaks agree with each other in describing a struggling home side, but they say little about how Auburn matches up, and three-game usage samples are small. Auburn's own three-game cover slide is a shorter run than Mississippi State's, so it carries less weight.