Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: Do the Over Streaks Survive a Breezy November Afternoon?

The central question in Tulsa is whether two teams that keep landing on the over can keep doing it in less than ideal conditions. Florida Atlantic has gone over the total in six straight games. Tulsa has done so in five straight. Florida Atlantic won last year's meeting 40-21 at home, so both sides have at least seen this opponent recently.

The streaks are the loudest part of this game, but they describe what has happened and nothing more. Florida Atlantic's run includes four straight overs on the road, which at least shows the pattern has not depended on home conditions. Tulsa's run is one game shorter, and it was extended on Saturday against Tulane. Two teams running hot on totals simultaneously is notable, but it says nothing on its own about how this matchup will unfold.

The forecast is the main thing pushing against that. Kickoff at H. A. Chapman Stadium is Saturday at 3:30 PM ET, with 51°F, partly cloudy skies and wind of 15 mph from the northwest. The temperature is mild. The wind is the item to watch, because a steady breeze tends to affect the passing game and kicking more than the running game. Both teams will face it, so it works against scoring for both sides.

On the Florida Atlantic side, the usage picture is clear. Caden Veltkamp threw 25 passes against UTSA on November 5 and has led the team in attempts in each of its last three games. Leonard Farrow has 43 carries over those three games, well ahead of Ethan Ervin's 25. The passing targets are concentrated: Easton Messer has 35 receptions over the span, with Kelby Valsin at 19 and Dominique Henry at 12.

Tulsa's offense looks more spread out. Baylor Hayes attempted 33 passes against Tulane on November 7 and has led the team in attempts in each of its last three games. Damari Alston has 37 carries over three games and Trequan Jones has 25. Oran Singleton Jr. leads the receivers with 25 catches, followed by Jimmy Calloway at 16 and Javon Ross at 9. Florida Atlantic's top receiver has more catches over the same three-game window than Tulsa's, though the opponents differed and three games is a small sample.

Neither team reports an injury, so the skill players above are the ones expected to play. That removes one variable, but it also means no absence offers an easy explanation for a surprising result.

Overall, the evidence is thin and mostly points one way. The over streaks and the high-scoring result in last year's meeting suggest points, while the wind is the one concrete factor that could suppress them. One game from a year ago carries little weight, and the streaks say little about how these defenses will match up against these offenses.