Arkansas State's road trends meet Coastal Carolina's home slump in Conway

Arkansas State comes to Brooks Stadium in Conway on Saturday, November 14 (1:00 PM ET) with the stronger recent trend lines, while Coastal Carolina is working through a poor stretch at home. The teams have not met in the last 400 days, so there is no recent head-to-head to draw on. The central question is whether the road team's run against the spread and the total continues, or whether the home side's slump finally gives way.

Arkansas State's streaks are the most notable items in this game. The Red Wolves have covered the spread in 4 straight in-division road games. They have also gone under the total in 5 straight in-division road games, 4 straight road games after a win, and 3 straight road games overall. Those under streaks come from overlapping contexts, so they describe one related run rather than several independent pieces of evidence.

Coastal Carolina's picture is the reverse. The Chanticleers have lost 4 straight at home and have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight at home. Those two runs overlap as well. Streaks describe what has happened and do not show that a pattern carries over. A road team that keeps covering against a home team that keeps failing to cover is a clean contrast, but it is not a predictive one.

On personnel, both quarterbacks are settled. Trey Owens has led Arkansas State in pass attempts in each of its last 3 games, including 29 attempts against the UL Monroe Warhawks on November 7. Deuce Bailey has done the same for Coastal Carolina, with 33 attempts against the Old Dominion Monarchs that day. Arkansas State's backfield is split: Solomon Baggett has 30 carries over the last 3 games and Kenyon Clay has 27. Coastal Carolina's is more concentrated, with Dominic Lee-Knicely at 40 carries over the same span and Jaden Allen-Hendrix at 18.

The Chanticleers spread their targets around. Karmello English and Clayton Coppock Jr. each have 10 receptions over the last 3 games, and tight end Zach Courtney also has 10. Arkansas State's top two receivers, Jaylen Bonelli with 14 and Chauncy Cobb with 13, have slightly higher totals. Neither team reports an injury, so both should have their usual personnel.

The forecast is 55°F with an 8 mph west wind and partly cloudy skies. Those are mild conditions with no obvious reason to expect scoring to be suppressed, so Arkansas State's under streaks will have to hold up under ordinary circumstances. Overall the evidence is thin. It consists of descriptive streaks that point in opposite directions for the two teams, with nothing else clearly separating them.