Texas's three-game win streak meets Arkansas's road trip in forecast rain

Texas hosts Arkansas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Saturday, November 21 at 3:30 PM ET, one year after the Longhorns won the 2025 regular-season meeting 52-37 at home. The central questions are whether Texas's current run of results holds and how forecast rain shapes two offenses with clearly defined primary ball carriers.

Texas's streaks are the strongest form evidence in the game: three straight wins overall and three straight covers of the spread. Those describe what has happened, and three-game windows are small samples, but they are the freshest results for the home side. Arkansas's streaks are harder to apply. The Razorbacks have lost nine straight as a home underdog and have gone under the total in three straight home games, yet both runs were built in home settings and this is a road game.

The forecast adds a variable: 62°F, wind of 11 mph from the southeast, and rain. Wet conditions generally make passing less efficient and put more weight on the run game and ball security. That sits alongside Arkansas's under streak, although that run came at home and cannot be read as a direct forecast for Austin. If the rain arrives, the game may be decided more by which backfield wins its carries than by either quarterback.

Recent usage shows who carries the offenses. Arch Manning led Texas in pass attempts in each of its last three games, including 38 attempts against the Missouri Tigers on November 7. Raleek Brown has 48 carries over those three games, well ahead of Michael Terry III with 15, and Ryan Wingo leads the receivers with 16 receptions. For Arkansas, KJ Jackson has led the team in attempts in each of its last three games, with 30 against the Auburn Tigers on November 7. Cam Settles has 39 carries and Braylen Russell 25 over that span, while Antonio Jordan leads the wide receivers with 13 receptions.

Neither team reports an injury, so no absence reshapes the matchup. Texas's quarterback also threw more in his most recent game than Jackson did in his, which matters if rain trims the passing volume the Longhorns have recently shown. Both quarterbacks have led their teams in attempts in each of the last three games, so usage looks stable, but that rests on only three games.

Overall, the evidence is thin and points in different directions. Form favors Texas, and the home side has the clearer recent momentum, while the weather could narrow how either offense operates. The 52-37 Texas win in last year's meeting says little about how this matchup will unfold. Nothing here separates the teams decisively.