Montana's hot early shooting meets San Francisco's rebounding and free throws as 11.5-point home favourite

San Francisco is an 11.5-point home favourite over Montana, and the question is whether Montana's strong early numbers survive a game away from home. Each team has played just two games, so every figure below is weak evidence, and one lopsided result can move a whole season line.

Montana's case rests on shooting. The Grizzlies have an effective field-goal percentage of 61.5%, rank 34, built on 43.1% from three on a three-point attempt rate of 46%. They score 87 points per game, rank 49, and allow 63.5, rank 41. Their previous game was a 105-40 home win, which carries heavy weight in a two-game sample. Montana also has six days of rest to San Francisco's four.

San Francisco's overall ranks are lower: 77.5 points per game, rank 83, and 66 allowed, rank 49. Its net rating is 25.4, rank 120, while Montana's is 33.8, rank 84. Where the Dons separate themselves is in creating extra chances. Their offensive rebound rate is 40% and their free-throw rate is .594, compared with Montana's 25.8% and .222. If Montana's shooting cools, those extra possessions and trips to the line are the clearest way San Francisco can stay ahead.

The Dons have a weakness, though. Their turnover rate is 18.6%, and Montana forces turnovers on 21.8% of possessions. Montana's opponents have also shot 46.9% effective field-goal, so the Grizzlies defend reasonably well, but that comes from a very small and possibly uneven set of opponents.

Neither team has an injury to account for. San Francisco's minutes run through Ben Oosterbaan, who averages 16 points in 33 minutes over the last two games, and Dylan Bordon at 13 points. For Montana, Jordan Clark averages 12 points and Tyler Thompson 11 points in 30.5 minutes. Neither roster shows a dominant scorer yet.

The market has barely reacted. The spread is still San Francisco -11.5, where it opened, and the total is 147.5, also unchanged. The moneyline is San Francisco -767 and Montana +493, a small move toward the Dons from -701 and +457, with implied win probability going from 87.5% to 88.5%. That is not a meaningful shift. Montana's two games have both gone over the total, and San Francisco's have split one and one, but two games say little about a total this high.

San Francisco has won three straight at home. That describes what has happened and nothing more. The picture is mixed: Montana has the better shooting and efficiency numbers, San Francisco has the rebounding and free-throw edge plus the home court, and the price reflects the Dons as clear favourites. Thin samples keep any of these edges from being firm.