Colorado's Shooting Against San Diego's Scoring and Rebounding at a 12.5-Point Spread

Colorado hosts San Diego at the CU Events Center on Tuesday night as a 12.5-point favourite, a number that has not moved since it opened. Both teams have played only two games, so everything below rests on a very small sample. The central question is whether Colorado's shooting and defence can outweigh San Diego's scoring and work on the offensive glass.

Colorado's edge is at the efficiency end. It allows 68 points per game, rank 54, while San Diego allows 76 per game, rank 82. The Buffaloes' effective field-goal percentage is 57%, rank 96, built on 43.2% from three. San Diego's is 50.4%, rank 204. That three-point mark is the kind of figure two games can inflate, and San Diego's opponents have shot 32.2% from deep.

San Diego's case runs through volume. It scores 87.5 points per game, rank 46, against Colorado's 80, rank 70. The Toreros grab 39.4% of their own misses, while Colorado grabs 27.7%. San Diego also gets to the line more, with a free-throw rate of .504 against Colorado's .391. Both teams turn the ball over on roughly 17% of possessions, and Colorado forces turnovers on 23% of opponent possessions, so San Diego's extra shots depend on protecting the ball.

The ratings do not settle it. Colorado's net rating is 20.1 points per 100 possessions, rank 154, and San Diego's is 14.1, rank 188. Neither ranking is strong among roughly 365 Division I teams, and a 12.5-point price asks for a lot given those modest early marks. Colorado's average scoring margin is 12 points per game, but it sits beside a 66-77 home loss in its last outing, so one lopsided result is carrying that figure. San Diego is 2-0 after a 96-90 home win four days ago and has not covered its one spread. Colorado is 1-1 against the spread.

Neither team has an injury to report. Barrington Hargress leads Colorado with 22 points per game over its last two, in 30.5 minutes. Dusty Stromer is San Diego's top-minute player at 31.5 minutes and 17 points per game. San Diego plays faster, at 73.9 possessions per game, rank 79, against Colorado's 70.5, rank 142.

The market has been static. Colorado is at -114 on the spread and San Diego at -109. The total is 151.5 with Over and Under both at -112, and the moneyline is Colorado -1094, San Diego +655. All three are where they opened. Both of San Diego's games have gone over the closing total and neither of Colorado's has, but with two games each that tells you little.

Overall, the evidence points both ways. Colorado has the better shooting and defensive marks, while San Diego has the scoring and rebounding. The spread is large relative to what two games of data show, but that data is thin enough that it is weak evidence either way.