St. John's Laying 26 at the Garden: Does Iona Keep It Close?

St. John's hosts Iona at Madison Square Garden on Sunday at noon ET as a 26-point favorite. The question is whether a number that large is justified by a repeat of last season's meeting. On December 13, 2025, the Red Storm beat the Gaels 91-64 at home. St. John's also arrives on a nine-game home winning streak, so the evidence for its dominance is consistent.

The market has not budged. The spread opened at St. John's -26 and is still there, priced at -123 on the Red Storm and +107 on Iona. The total opened at 144 and remains 144, with Over -109 and Under -109. With both numbers essentially unchanged since opening, the lines carry no extra information beyond the opening price. The Red Storm side is the more expensive one, which fits their role as the heavy favorite.

The scoring evidence conflicts. St. John's reached 91 points in the December meeting, which points toward a high-scoring home game. Against that, the Red Storm have gone under the total in three straight home games. Streaks describe what has already happened and do not predict anything, but the two points pull in different directions on how this game plays out.

The rotation numbers are thin. Iona's guards have carried the recent workload: Kevon Vanderhorst has averaged 32 minutes and 18.5 points per game over the team's last 2 games, and Kosy Akametu has averaged 27.5 minutes and 13 points per game. Its forwards Keyshawn Mitchell, Sadiku Ibine Ayo and Aiden Disu have each scored between 2 and 5 points per game over that span. That points to an offense leaning heavily on two ball handlers.

St. John's most recent game shows a different balance. Keyshawn Hall played 33 minutes and scored 26 points, and Ian Jackson added 15 in 22 minutes. That is one game, so it is weak evidence about how the rotation will look on Sunday. Two games for Iona is only slightly better. Both teams are early in the season, and these figures could shift quickly.

Neither team has an injury reported, so no absence reshapes the matchup. The case for St. John's rests on the December result, the home winning streak and the price itself. The case for Iona rests mostly on the size of the number, since 26 points is a lot to cover even for a team on a long home run. The total is the less settled question: last season's 91-point output and the recent run of unders do not agree, and nothing else in the evidence settles it.