Butler at Boise State: a true pick'em with little to separate them

Nothing in this game separates the two sides. Butler visits Boise State at ExtraMile Arena on Sunday at 2:00 PM ET with the spread at pick'em, and both teams priced at -108 on the spread. The moneyline is Boise State -115 and Butler -115, so the market treats this as a true coin flip. The only prior meeting on record went to Boise State, 77-68 at Butler on 2025-12-06, nearly a year ago and with the venue now reversed. Neither side is favored by price, so the question is whether anything in the recent evidence breaks the tie.

The price has not budged. The spread opened at pick'em and remains there, the total opened at 152 and sits at 152 with Over -109 and Under -109, and the moneyline is essentially unchanged. A market that has not moved gives no hint about which way opinion falls, so any case for either side has to come from elsewhere.

That elsewhere is thin. The recent form that exists rests on tiny samples: Butler's figures cover its last 2 games and Boise State's cover one. Butler's scoring looks top-heavy over those two games. Asim Djulovic is at 22 points per game in 23.5 minutes, Jalen Jackson 17 in 28 minutes, and Eduardo Klafke 14.5 in 26 minutes, while Samis Calderon (4 points per game in 24 minutes) and Drayton Jones (6 in 21) have contributed far less.

Boise State's last game shows a more even spread: Damari Wheeler-Thomas had 17 points in 24 minutes, Bhan Buom 16 in 21, Jerquarius Stanback 15 in 20, with Aginaldo Neto and Spencer Ahrens at 10 each. One game is a box score, not a trend, but it does show five Boise State rotation players sharing the scoring while Butler relied on three.

The totals streaks are the most visible pattern. Butler has gone over in 4 straight games overall and 3 straight on the road; Boise State has gone over in 3 straight. Both point to the same side of 152, but streaks describe what has happened rather than forecast anything, and the total has not shifted to reflect them. Because both teams share the pattern, it does not separate them; it only describes recent results for each.

No injuries are reported for either team, and the game is indoors, so there is no outside factor to adjust for. Overall the evidence is balanced: a pick'em, unmoved prices, a prior result favoring Boise State that is nearly a year old, and one- and two-game samples. The over streaks are the one consistent thread, and they are descriptive only. Anyone looking for an edge will find nothing decisive on either side.