Texas's top-ranked efficiency against Baylor's turnover pressure in a 3-0 matchup

Two unbeaten teams meet Sunday at 3:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, indoors, with no meeting between them in the last 400 days. Texas is a 6.5-point favourite. The central question is whether the Longhorns' efficiency over three games holds against a Baylor defense that has forced turnovers at a remarkable clip.

Texas has the stronger profile on paper. Its offensive rating of 143.7 points per 100 possessions ranks 1, and its net rating of 65.2 also ranks 1. Baylor's net rating of 49.6 ranks 9, and its defensive rating of 79.7 ranks 13, against Texas's 78.4 at rank 8. Texas is shooting 65.1% effective field-goal percentage, rank 4, including 41.7% from three. Everything here comes from three games per side, so treat the gaps as suggestive rather than settled.

The most interesting friction is turnovers. Baylor has forced turnovers on 29.8% of opponent possessions, while Texas has given the ball away on 13.4% of its own. Something has to give there. Baylor's own shot profile is the softer spot: 40.7% of its field-goal attempts are threes, yet it is making 27.2%, and its effective field-goal percentage of 55.3% ranks 109. Texas has held opponents to 24.6% from three. Both teams get to the line often, with Texas at .542 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt and Baylor at .492. Offensive rebounding is almost level at 43.7% for Texas and 43.6% for Baylor.

Neither team has an injury to report, so both rotations are intact. Matas Vokietaitis has averaged 21.3 points in 22.3 minutes over Texas's last three games, well ahead of Austin Goosby's 7 points and Isaiah Johnson's 11.7 in similar minutes. Baylor's scoring is more spread out. Kayden Mingo and Dylan Mingo each average 15 points, and Isaac Williams IV and Brett Decker Jr. each average 14.3 over the same span. Baylor arrives on three straight wins, though Texas is 3-0 as well.

The spread opened at Texas -4.5 and now sits at Texas -6.5, with both sides priced at -110. A two-point move toward Texas is notable. The moneyline has followed more gently, with Texas at -230 and Baylor at +182, a small shift. The total of 160.5 is exactly where it opened. Only 33.3% of each team's games this season have gone over the closing total, and both teams are 2-1 against the spread.

Overall, the ratings, the shooting and the price all point toward Texas. Baylor's route to keeping this close runs through turnover pressure, and its 27.2% three-point shooting is the number most exposed to a small sample. Texas's gaudy marks carry the same caveat.