Winless Idaho State Faces Mediocre Seattle U in a Steep 16.5-Point Spread

Idaho State is 0-3 and arrives at Seattle U as a 16.5-point underdog, but the Redhawks are hardly a proven force themselves. At 1-2, Seattle U is coming off a 59-86 home loss. The central question is whether Idaho State's defensive collapse is bad enough to outweigh a modest home team's own problems. Seattle U won last year's meeting 83-74 at home on November 16, 2025.

Idaho State's profile is among the weakest in Division I. Its defensive rating is 129 points allowed per 100 possessions, rank 347, and its net rating is -36.5 points per 100 possessions, rank 353. The offense is the other half of the problem: effective field-goal percentage of 39.6%, rank 346, and 21.3% from three on a 40.1% three-point attempt rate. Opponents are scoring 92 points per game against the Bengals. This is only three games, so it is noisy, but the signal runs the same way at both ends.

Seattle U's numbers are mediocre rather than strong. Its net rating is -3.3 points per 100 possessions, rank 262, and its offensive rating of 101 ranks 289. It turns the ball over on 22% of possessions, though Idaho State forces turnovers on only 18.2% of possessions. The Redhawks allow 73.3 points per game, rank 93, a far sturdier defensive base than the Bengals have shown.

No injuries are reported for either side. The top of each rotation is clear: MaCarhy Morris plays 34.7 minutes and scores 18 points per game over Idaho State's last 3 games, while Will Heimbrodt plays 32.7 minutes and scores 18.7 points per game over the same span for Seattle U.

Seattle U is -16.5 at -112, up from an opening -15.5, a small move toward the favourite. The moneyline is Seattle U -1978 and Idaho State +955, essentially unchanged. The total is 144.5, down from 145.5, also a small move. The totals evidence conflicts. All of Idaho State's games have gone over the closing total and its pace is 72.1 possessions per game, rank 119. Seattle U has gone under in five straight at home, and only 33.3% of its games this season have gone over.

Idaho State is 0-3 against the spread this season, with 7 straight failures to cover on the road and 5 straight after a loss. Seattle U is 2-1 against the spread. Those streaks describe what has happened, not what comes next. Team quality points clearly toward Seattle U, but a 16.5-point spread asks a lot of a side that was just beaten 59-86 at home, and three games per team is thin evidence either way.