Army's Early Numbers Clash With New Haven's Home Price in Two-Game Samples

Two teams with two games each, and a price that treats them as near equals even though the early numbers do not. New Haven Chargers are 1.5-point home favourites over Army Black Knights tonight at 7:00 PM ET at Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center. Yet Army is 1-1 with a net rating of 25.1 points per 100 possessions (rank 122), while New Haven is 0-2 with a net rating of -34.6 (rank 343).

The gap shows on both ends of the floor. Army scores 84 points per game (rank 55) and allows 62.5 (rank 35), with an effective field-goal percentage of 64.3% (rank 12) while holding opponents to 40%. New Haven's offensive rating is 86.3 points per 100 possessions (rank 337) and its defensive rating is 120.9 (rank 319). Its last game was a 54-81 road loss. Ball security is a problem on both sides: Army's turnover rate is 20.8% and New Haven's is 23.1%, though Army forces turnovers on 18.9% of possessions against New Haven's 12.5%.

The caveat is sample size. Two games is thin, and Army's last outing, a 118-41 home win, drives much of its profile. Its per-possession ranks are far less dominant than its scoring ranks: offensive rating 116.2 (rank 157) and defensive rating 91.1 (rank 102). Army's 43.3% three-point shooting on a 53.6% attempt rate, with opponents at 22.2%, is also the kind of figure a couple of games can produce.

Streaks complicate the picture. Army is shown with five straight losses overall and three straight on the road, which sits awkwardly beside a 1-1 record and a 118-41 win in its last game. Those runs describe what has happened rather than what will, but they are a reason not to read too much into two games either way.

No injuries are reported for either side. Teshaun Steele leads New Haven with 34.5 minutes and 16.5 points per game over its last 2 games, while Kevin McCarthy averages 15.5 points for Army across the same stretch. Army has had five days since its last game and New Haven four.

The market has not moved. New Haven is -1.5 as it opened, priced at -105 against Army's -126, with the moneyline at New Haven -123 and Army -106. The total is 137.5, unchanged, with Over and Under both at -113. Army's pace of 70.5 possessions per game (rank 143) is faster than New Haven's 64.5 (rank 236), and no Army game has gone over the closing total, though that is only two games. The stats point toward Army, the price points toward New Haven, and the movement does nothing to resolve it.