Winnipeg's winning run meets Chicago's league-worst shot share: how big is the gap?

Winnipeg is a -153 moneyline favourite at the United Center, and the central question is how much a middling Jets team can take from a Chicago side that ranks near the bottom of the league at both ends. The Jets arrive on a five-game winning streak, while the Blackhawks have just ended a six-game losing streak. The two runs point in opposite directions.

The season numbers favour Winnipeg, though not dramatically. The Jets are 9-8-3 with a 52.5% points percentage, rank 19, scoring 3.05 goals per game (rank 17) and allowing 3.4 (rank 16). Chicago is 5-13-1 with a 28.9% points percentage, rank 27, scoring 2.21 goals per game (rank 30) and allowing 4.11 (rank 27). Chicago's shot share of 43.4% ranks 31st, while Winnipeg's 49.3% ranks 17th.

Winnipeg is not airtight. The Jets have allowed 3.9 goals per game over their last 10, and their team save percentage of 88.5% ranks 22. Chicago's is 87.4%, rank 27, so goaltending offers little separation. On special teams, Winnipeg's power play converts at 24.2% (rank 10) against a Chicago penalty kill at 78.7% (rank 14). Chicago's power play sits at 11.1%, rank 30, facing a Jets penalty kill at 74.6%, rank 21.

Recent form and head-to-head are tighter than the rankings suggest. Winnipeg won its last game 8-3 on the road at Dallas, with Mark Scheifele scoring twice and adding an assist. The Jets also have five straight puck-line covers and five straight overs on the road, though streaks describe what has happened and do not forecast tonight. Chicago beat Buffalo 3-2 in overtime in its last game. Winnipeg has won three of the last five meetings, but Chicago took the most recent one 4-3 on October 16, and Winnipeg won the April 1 meeting in Chicago by the same score.

The moneyline has barely moved from its open of Jets -147 and Blackhawks +124. Support is lopsided: 92% of bets and 84% of money are on Winnipeg, yet the price has essentially held. The puck line is Jets -1.5, with Chicago +1.5 priced at -199 and Winnipeg at +160. The total is 6.5, unchanged, with Over +111 and Under -135. Over rates of 52.6% for Winnipeg and 55.6% for Chicago are close, and Winnipeg's recent scoring runs against Chicago's 2.1 goals per game over its last 10.

Isak Rosen is out for Winnipeg, and Dylan DeMelo went on injured reserve Friday. Bowen Byram has been on Chicago's injured reserve since November 3. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.