Devils' shot dominance against Toronto's finishing and power play on a tight turnaround

New Jersey is a -141 moneyline favourite against Toronto at +118, and the central question is whether process or finishing carries the night. The Devils own the territorial numbers. The Maple Leafs own the special teams and the shooting efficiency.

New Jersey's shot share is 56.9%, rank 2, and it allows 24.9 shots on goal per game. Toronto's shot share is 48.9%, rank 21. Even so, Toronto scores 3.65 goals per game, rank 6, compared with New Jersey's 3.56, rank 9. The gap comes from finishing: Toronto shoots 13%, while the Devils shoot 10.6%. In goal, Toronto's team save percentage is 89.6%, rank 11, and New Jersey's is 88.5%, rank 23. With 16 and 17 games played, that finishing could swing either way, but it is what the results show so far.

Special teams may be the sharpest conflict. Toronto's power play converts at 28.8%, rank 6, and New Jersey's penalty kill succeeds at 67.6%, rank 29. In the other direction, Toronto's penalty kill is 88.1%, rank 4, while New Jersey's power play is 18%, rank 20. Toronto holds the edge in both matchups, so the number of penalties called could matter a great deal.

Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, but this is New Jersey's third game in four nights. The Devils won 5-4 at home last time out and have won three straight, scoring 4.1 goals per game and allowing 2.5 over their last 10. Toronto lost 2-3 at home in its previous game and has dropped three straight as a home underdog. Its last-10 figures are 3.8 scored and 3.3 allowed. Toronto also has four players on injured reserve since late October, two of them defensemen.

The moneyline has moved slightly toward New Jersey, with Toronto's implied win probability going from 46.9% to 45.9%, a small move. Bets are 95% on the Devils and money is 76% on the Devils, so the price moved the same way as both. The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open, with Over +105 and Under -129. New Jersey has gone over in five straight games and in 62.5% of its games this season, and Toronto's games have gone over 58.8% of the time. On the puck line, New Jersey is 6-10 against the spread this season, while Toronto is 9-8 and has covered three straight at home.

Last season's meetings split 2-1 for New Jersey, by scores of 5-2 and 4-3, with Toronto winning 4-0 in between. That is thin evidence for tonight. The picture is mixed: New Jersey's shot volume and recent form against Toronto's finishing, power play and penalty kill, with the schedule fatigue falling more heavily on the visitors.